Trams. Sluta upprepa de propagandafraser den liberala finansmaffian i väst sprider via sina nätverk av lydiga mediamegafoner. Den ryska ekonomin är en av de mest stabila i hela den utvecklade världen, eftersom den inte bygger på lånekaruseller (som i Sverige, där all penningtillväxt sker genom bostadsbubblan) eller att bara trycka mer dollar (som i USA).
När aktie- och bostadsbubblorna i väst spricker, och tillväxten där då störtdyker, kommer den ryska ekonomin att fortsätta tuffa på i samma takt som nu, med 2-3% tillväxt om året (enligt officiella siffror, men 4-5% i realiteten om man tar hänsyn till att de under-rapporterar stora delar av den verkliga tillväxten).
Citat:
https://www.awaragroup.com/blog/russ...ef-march-2019/
Awara Accounting Russian economy brief March 2019
The year has started on a very optimistic note for Russia. It’s been so good that the liberals are crying foul.
Industrial production keeps climbing up. After a strong performance in 2018, industrial production grew 2.6% in January through February, including by a staggering 4.1% in February. The subsector manufacturing was an especially bright spot delivering a mouthwatering 4.6% growth.
Inflation has remained low. Although the VAT rate was raised with two percentage points (more than 1/10th, now 20%) the incremental effect of it on inflation was less than one percentage point, giving an annualized inflation of 5.2% at end of February.
Unemployment continued its positive downward trend was only 4.9% in February. The low unemployment has put pressure on salaries which have been rising above inflation. The effect was seen also in a 2% growth in February retail sales.
The strong economic recovery has translated in solid federal budget surpluses: In 2018, 2.7% (as a share of GDP) and 2% by February 2019. Contrary to the US and the EU, for Russia this is all real money which comes through organic growth and not central bank money printing.
The GDP grew 2.3% last year. We at Awara expect a growth of 2% or above for this year. This is pending uncertainties in the global economy.
The Russian finances are super solid
The budget surpluses are filling Putin’s war chest especially when we remember that Russia has the absolutely lowest level of debt of all major countries. In comparison with the US and the other big Western countries, we could say Russia is practically debtless.
But that’s not all. The strong economy has also enabled Putin to continue hoarding gold, adding since year end $5 billion worth of gold to the coffers. The Central Bank bought 31.1 tons of gold just in February. Russia’s gold reserves are now worth $92 billion, included in a total of $483 billion central bank reserves. (Up by $15 billion by February).
And more. While the going is good, Russia decided to tap the foreign bond markets, too, hauling in $7.2 billion worth of funds at attractive rates (5.1% for dollar bonds maturing in 2035). Russia does not need the money as such but just wants to fill the chests as long as there are willing foreign investors to give it away. The Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said that raising this huge amount abroad also enables the Government to cut down on domestic borrowings and so easing access for local companies to borrow.
Imports from the EU and Germany collapse as China grows
Russian foreign trade stats for January delivered shocking figures which all observers seem to have missed so far. Imports from the sanctions-happy EU – which has been Russia’s main supplier since the demise of the USSR – crashed through the ceiling with a 14% decline. Worse yet for Germany, who saw its exports to Russia cut by 22% from January 2018 leaving a value of only $1.2 billion. At the same time, imports from friendly China grew with a healthy 6%. As a result Russia’s imports from China (26% of total) are now three times bigger than those from Germany (7.8%). Total imports from the EU now make up only 30% of all Russia’s imports.
We stress the importation figures, because of their twofold importance. Low levels of imports from the EU and high ones from China, Asia and other parts of the free world show that Russia’s dependence on that hostile block has diminished and it can get all it needs – if not domestically produced – elsewhere. The other aspect of this is the mirror image, it shows how the EU countries have shot themselves in the foot by slavishly adhering to the American sanctions against Russia.
We do not have the details yet on February but the overall decline in imports was 5.6% in February vs. 1.2% in January. This would point towards a continued trend along the lines depicted above.
Liberals don’t believe it
It is indeed remarkable that a country’s imports fall so strongly at the same time as the other macroeconomic figures show solid growth. There is only one explanation for that, and that is import substitution. Import substitution is the magic word by which Putin countered the Western sanctions and made one better. “If you don’t want to sell, we’ll make our own stuff.” And it’s an absolute killer as we’ve seen.
This is precisely what the liberals don’t get. Russia revised – for completely understandable reasons – end of 2018 the components that make up GDP (namely, construction) and following it the GDP for 2018 was higher than previously expected at 2.3%. “Something fishy here,” they cried. Then came the remarkable industrial production figures and nice GDP. “We told you so…This can’t be right…It’s because Putin replaced the chief for the statistics agency…bla, bla, bla.” The libs then enumerated a long list of things why the February growth figure is either wrong or just a one-timer. I tell them: Put two things together, under overall conditions of growth a sharp drop in imports is offset by strong growth in domestic manufacturing. It is as easy as that.
The year has started on a very optimistic note for Russia. It’s been so good that the liberals are crying foul.
Industrial production keeps climbing up. After a strong performance in 2018, industrial production grew 2.6% in January through February, including by a staggering 4.1% in February. The subsector manufacturing was an especially bright spot delivering a mouthwatering 4.6% growth.
Inflation has remained low. Although the VAT rate was raised with two percentage points (more than 1/10th, now 20%) the incremental effect of it on inflation was less than one percentage point, giving an annualized inflation of 5.2% at end of February.
Unemployment continued its positive downward trend was only 4.9% in February. The low unemployment has put pressure on salaries which have been rising above inflation. The effect was seen also in a 2% growth in February retail sales.
The strong economic recovery has translated in solid federal budget surpluses: In 2018, 2.7% (as a share of GDP) and 2% by February 2019. Contrary to the US and the EU, for Russia this is all real money which comes through organic growth and not central bank money printing.
The GDP grew 2.3% last year. We at Awara expect a growth of 2% or above for this year. This is pending uncertainties in the global economy.
The Russian finances are super solid
The budget surpluses are filling Putin’s war chest especially when we remember that Russia has the absolutely lowest level of debt of all major countries. In comparison with the US and the other big Western countries, we could say Russia is practically debtless.
But that’s not all. The strong economy has also enabled Putin to continue hoarding gold, adding since year end $5 billion worth of gold to the coffers. The Central Bank bought 31.1 tons of gold just in February. Russia’s gold reserves are now worth $92 billion, included in a total of $483 billion central bank reserves. (Up by $15 billion by February).
And more. While the going is good, Russia decided to tap the foreign bond markets, too, hauling in $7.2 billion worth of funds at attractive rates (5.1% for dollar bonds maturing in 2035). Russia does not need the money as such but just wants to fill the chests as long as there are willing foreign investors to give it away. The Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said that raising this huge amount abroad also enables the Government to cut down on domestic borrowings and so easing access for local companies to borrow.
Imports from the EU and Germany collapse as China grows
Russian foreign trade stats for January delivered shocking figures which all observers seem to have missed so far. Imports from the sanctions-happy EU – which has been Russia’s main supplier since the demise of the USSR – crashed through the ceiling with a 14% decline. Worse yet for Germany, who saw its exports to Russia cut by 22% from January 2018 leaving a value of only $1.2 billion. At the same time, imports from friendly China grew with a healthy 6%. As a result Russia’s imports from China (26% of total) are now three times bigger than those from Germany (7.8%). Total imports from the EU now make up only 30% of all Russia’s imports.
We stress the importation figures, because of their twofold importance. Low levels of imports from the EU and high ones from China, Asia and other parts of the free world show that Russia’s dependence on that hostile block has diminished and it can get all it needs – if not domestically produced – elsewhere. The other aspect of this is the mirror image, it shows how the EU countries have shot themselves in the foot by slavishly adhering to the American sanctions against Russia.
We do not have the details yet on February but the overall decline in imports was 5.6% in February vs. 1.2% in January. This would point towards a continued trend along the lines depicted above.
Liberals don’t believe it
It is indeed remarkable that a country’s imports fall so strongly at the same time as the other macroeconomic figures show solid growth. There is only one explanation for that, and that is import substitution. Import substitution is the magic word by which Putin countered the Western sanctions and made one better. “If you don’t want to sell, we’ll make our own stuff.” And it’s an absolute killer as we’ve seen.
This is precisely what the liberals don’t get. Russia revised – for completely understandable reasons – end of 2018 the components that make up GDP (namely, construction) and following it the GDP for 2018 was higher than previously expected at 2.3%. “Something fishy here,” they cried. Then came the remarkable industrial production figures and nice GDP. “We told you so…This can’t be right…It’s because Putin replaced the chief for the statistics agency…bla, bla, bla.” The libs then enumerated a long list of things why the February growth figure is either wrong or just a one-timer. I tell them: Put two things together, under overall conditions of growth a sharp drop in imports is offset by strong growth in domestic manufacturing. It is as easy as that.
När aktie- och bostadsbubblorna i väst spricker, och tillväxten där då störtdyker, kommer den ryska ekonomin att fortsätta tuffa på i samma takt som nu, med 2-3% tillväxt om året (enligt officiella siffror, men 4-5% i realiteten om man tar hänsyn till att de under-rapporterar stora delar av den verkliga tillväxten).
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Senast redigerad av VarmaDrycker 2019-06-06 kl. 11:02.
Senast redigerad av VarmaDrycker 2019-06-06 kl. 11:02.
