Peak Oil

Oil-and-gas revenues account for 70% of Russia's total exports and more than half the income of its federal government. Russia exports more than seven million barrels of oil a day, second only to Saudi Arabia. One key difference between Russia and the No. 1 exporter is that more than 60% of Russian oil is produced in Siberia, where costs are much higher. A fall in the world price to $75 from $100 would therefore have a much greater impact on the net revenues that Russia earns from oil than is earned by the Saudis.

That's a far cry from the old paradigm, promoted in the past 40 years, which posited ever-greater demand for petroleum as developing economies grew, and a slowdown on the supply side -- the looming prospect of "peak oil," whereby global production maxes out and falls into decline. To the contrary, unconventional sources of crude oil totaling more than a trillion barrels -- the equivalent of more than 30 years of extra supply -- have been discovered in the past five years. The majority is recoverable at $75 or less, and much is now being tapped.

Within the next five years, growth in U.S. production of oil should make this country a net exporter, ending a pattern that has persisted since World War II. "While this country will still be importing plenty of medium and heavy crudes, most of the imports will come from Canada and Mexico," says Morse. "So the U.S. will no longer have to worry about disruptions in supply that might disrupt economic activity. That's why we call it the era of North American energy independence."

Naturligtvis är det befängt att säga att vi aldrig får slut på olja, men jag tror många Peak Oil-anhängare underskattar driften att tjäna pengar och den mänskliga uppfinningsrikedomen.

Bullish analysts and oil executives have reason to crow. While drilling in Iraq could break even at about $20 a barrel, output will be limited by political risks, Ed Morse, global head of commodities research at Citigroup Inc. in New York, said in a January report. By contrast, the break-even price in U.S. shale is estimated at $60 to $80 a barrel, according to the IEA. The price of a barrel hasn’t dipped below $80 since 2012 and has stayed above $90 since May. Costs in the U.S. will continue to fall as drillers get faster and improve results, Morse said.

Vi vet ju att man plockar de lägst hängande frukterna först, till slut blir det så besvärligt att det helt enkelt inte blir lönsamt oavsett priset på energi.

Rent teoretiskt kan kan jag tänka mig en massa olika ersättningar till oljan, gasen och kolet. I praktiken kan man inte byta ut äpplen mot päron hur man vill. Vi har en infrastruktur som vi byggt upp under lång tid som är beroende av sina speciella insatsvaror. Bensinbilar, kolkraftverk, dieseldrivna fartyg, vägar och flygplatser. Allt sådant har en ekonomisk livslängd som binder oss till den energimix vi använder idag för lång tid framåt.