Der Spiegel har en bra artikel från 24 januari präglad av tysk noggrannhet och nykterhet. Bra sammanfattning och tidslinje som karta för var vi står nu. Men man ser hur fort sådana här artiklar åldras då vi redan idag kan börja dra slutsatser om de tyska patienterna. Bl a hur många som en person smittar och hur fort.
In December, it’s likely that a wild animal on sale carried a virus that managed to infect a person here. Its preliminary name is the coronavirus “2019-nCoV.” Scientists have found clues suggesting that the virus’ host was a snake. Chinese authorities believe badgers and rats might be responsible.
According to calculations by researchers at Imperial College London, the true number of infected was already at 4,000 on Jan. 18.
Min anmärkning: Det här är en uppskattning. Högre uppskattningar har också figurerat.
Lite olyckligt att der Spiegel inte undervisar allmänheten om att de diagnostiserade siffrorna är hard facts, inte en utsaga om hur många som smittats. Och att de diagnostiserade siffrorna är ingalunda en lögn men att med antalet smittade kan sägas med 100% säkerhet vara högre, hur mycket vet vi inte men kan försöka gissa med gamla beprövad modeller. Och att modellernas träffsäkerhet är lägre i så här tidigt stadium som 18 januari.
One characteristic of the new virus, in particular, has worried the virologists from the start: its similarity to the SARS virus.
The SARS epidemic began in 2002 in Guangdong, likely at a market similar to the one in Wuhan. The coronavirus was most likely transmitted to people via the consumption of palm civets. The epidemic ultimately spread to several countries and caused 774 deaths worldwide.
Nevertheless, the new virus is killing far fewer people than its two predecessors, with mortality currently estimated at 4 percent. SARS killed around one out of 10 patients. The authorities have also reported that the people who have died so far have mainly been elderly patients already in poor health.*At the beginning of an outbreak, when it is mainly the severe cases that get reported, it is common for mortality rates to get significantly overestimated. But if it does become a worldwide epidemic, the relatively few patients dying from the virus will add up significantly.
Min anmärkning: Ingen av de smittade utomlands, utom en 80-åring i Frankrike, har rapporterats vara i allvarligt sjuk. Alltså verkar det som att viruset är farligast för sjuka och äldre.
Experts haven’t been taken by surprise by the fact that there’s a new coronavirus epidemic. Genetic analyses suggest that 2019-nCoV could be a mutation of the genetic material of two coronaviruses. “These viruses can change dramatically through recombination,” says Christian Drosten, director of the Institute of Virology at Berlin's Charité university hospital and co-discoverer of the SARS virus. "This is well known and one of the reasons that they are so dangerous."
One of the two coronavirus strains responsible for the new virus is found in bats. The SARS virus also lived in these animals before it was passed on to humans through the palm civet.
“Bats are carriers of a ton of different strains of coronavirus,” says Drosten. “In some cases, they can even spread directly to humans.”
This was also observed by Zhengli Shi, professor of virology and coronavirus expert in Wuhan. A few years back, she studied the blood of people around 1,000 kilometers south of Wuhan living near bat caves.*Around 3 percent of those people were found to have antibodies against SARS-like coronaviruses in their blood, a clear indication that they had been exposed to the pathogens.
In Germany, Christian Drosten also believes that the spread of the new virus really only began recently. He says that can be detected in the gene sequence, which has been very similar in all the people infected.
Min anmärkning: Första patienten 1 december enligt the Lancet, alltså har sjukdomen varit aktiv i november.
Hela artikeln
https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/fresh-viral-threat-emerges-in-china-a-d7076d78-06dd-4dbc-93da-0c1e37691a0c
