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Ursprungligen postat av
Savoy
Intressant artikel om de senaste sanktionerna, varför de tar så hårt och effekten av dem. Tippar på flera redan i april, kanske maj. Man har hittat sitt recept nu, bara att luta sig tillbaka och se eländet utvecklas.
https://carnegie.ru/commentary/76120
Finns det någon annan analys än från carnegie.ru?
Om du nu syftade på "teknologier" när du pratade om 'receptet' så fanns det väl inget speciellt i Trumps sanktioner jämfört med Obamas?
"Teknologier" var ju mest gas- och oljeutvinning, men att låta Iran komma åt marknaden (genom att hålla Iran-avtalet) skulle nog skada Ryssland mer än det?
Putins svar kan vara en nationalisering av Rusal&CO och då slutet på oligarkerna. Vore bra, speciellt om det följde med en normal privatisering.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-18/sanctions-crisis-threatens-60-000-workers-and-putin-needs-a-plan
Sanctions Crisis Risks 60,000 Workers and Putin Needs a Plan
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The billionaire is among Putin’s closest allies and built Rusal into a global behemoth by scooping up newly issued worker shares in Siberian smelters in the 1990s.
https://www.ft.com/content/ef17a542-43cf-11e8-93cf-67ac3a6482fd
Temporary nationalisation of Rusal an option — Kremlin
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A temporary nationalisation of Russian aluminium producer Rusal is one of many options being discussed to support the company hit by US sanctions, the Kremlin’s spokesman has said, as the metal continued to rise in price on global markets.
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“There are various points in the expert community about how to help [sanctioned] companies and this is one of them,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters when asked about the proposal of a temporary nationalisation raised by a trade union official.
“Of course, it is important to take into account the opinion of the companies’ shareholders, the companies’ owners and the government’s capabilities. Therefore, in this case we are talking about one of the points of view, which are now being actively discussed,” Mr Peskov added.
It was not clear how the potential nationalisation may be temporary, or how it might allow Rusal to restart sales of its metal to western customers.
Vad säger kreditvärderingsinstituten?
https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-Russias-sovereign-resilient-to-new-US-sanctions-some-Russian--PR_382533
Announcement: Moody's: Russia's sovereign resilient to new US sanctions; some Russian debt issuers will be affected
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Russia's strong public and external finances will help to shield the broader economy from the impact of new US sanctions, protecting the sovereign credit profile, Moody's Investors Service said in a report today. However, the sanctions will be credit negative for some Russian debt issuers, in particular the aluminium company RUSAL, and uncertainty around potential further sanctions persists, which could adversely affect other corporate issuers.
The report assesses the credit implications of the latest sanctions and the threat of further measures for the Russian sovereign, regional governments, companies and banks.
"Russia's sovereign credit profile -- its rating is Ba1 with a positive outlook -- is well positioned to withstand the impact of new sanctions," said Kristin Lindow, a Moody's Senior Vice President and co-author of the report. "Higher oil prices will help the government to make further progress in rebuilding its fiscal savings."
Medan Fitch säger att
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-russia-sanctions-ratings/russian-companies-will-feel-severe-effect-from-u-s-sanctions-fitch-idUSKBN1HK1XP
Russian companies will feel severe effect from U.S. sanctions: Fitch
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The new round of U.S. sanctions against Russia will have a “severe effect” on targeted companies and will limit Russia’s potential economic growth, Fitch Ratings said on Friday.
The U.S. Treasury on April 6 announced sanctions on seven Russian oligarchs and 12 companies they own or control, saying they were profiting from a Russian state engaged in “malign activities” around the world.
“The sanctions are likely to have a profound effect on the designated companies, which would be unable to transact in U.S. dollars - the standard denomination currency in commodities trading and the main currency in counterparty transactions in international trading,” Fitch said.