Konflikten i Syrien

Joshua Landis is Director of the Center for Middle East Studies and Professor at the University of Oklahoma’s College of International Studies.

He writes “Syria Comment,” a daily newsletter on Syrian politics that attracts over 100,000 readers a month. Dr. Landis travels frequently to Washington DC to consult with government agencies and speak at think tanks. Most recently he has spoken at the Woodrow Wilson Institute, Brookings Institute, USIP, Middle East Institute, and Council on Foreign Relations.

He was educated at Swarthmore (BA), Harvard (MA), and Princeton (PhD). He has lived over 14 years in the Middle East and speaks Arabic and French fluently. He has lived four years in Syria, and spent most summers in Damascus until the revolution began.

He is a frequent analyst on TV and radio. (See: Landis in the News) Most recently he has appeared on PBS News Hour,

1. The presumption undergirding the "Syria debate" - that Iranian influence is "malignant" & bad for Iraq, Syria and Lebanon - is misguided. By trying to rollback Iran, the US does more harm than good. US occupation of N. Syria & renewed sanctions are bad alternative. Read thread

2. Most important: what was the alternative to Iranian influence in the Levant? We must & can only presume the alternative would have been a victory of the Syrian opp, backed by KSA/Qatari. How would this possibly be better for the people of the region, the US, or even Israel?

3. What would a Saudi/Qatari victory look like? The alternative in 2015 was a Nusra/ISIS victory. This is why Russia intervened on Assad's side. It wanted to preclude such an eventuality: ISIS taking Damascus. Listen to John Kerry explain why RU intervened

4. Iran is a more developed nation than the KSA. It has a broad & varied middle class that is by all accounts quite pro-American, skilled and has a lot to offer the region, probably more than does the Gulf.

5. This is the 1st time in mod history that the entire north tier of Mid East countries share good relations. Potential for development is immense. Gas & oil pipelines stretching from Iran to the Med: pilgrims, roads, tourists, commerce criss-crossing a region that was at war.

6. Iran is indispensable for the restoration of the region’s economy. Only Iran is capable of supporting the level of rebuilding needed after these years of war.

7. With redoubled U.S. and E.U sanctions, region is now crippled economically. West straining to stop reconstruction of any kind. US blocking highways from Damascus to Amman or to Baghdad. Stopping commerce with Lebanon.

8. By reimposing crippling sanctions on Iran, the only beneficiaries will be the hard-liners in government and the corrupt elite. Ordinary Iranians, who have so much to offer the region, will seek to emigrate.

9. What is the U.S. likely to offer the region? Not much, it must be argued. Raqqa and Mosul are the poster children of U.S. engagement in reconstruction activities. It is not promising:

10. The Kurds are beginning to despair the US can or will protect them in the long run or pay 4 reconstruction. They have reached out to Syr gov. U.S. should facilitate the reunification of Syria, rather than seek to turn it into a quagmire for Iran.

11. All the countries of the region are suffering b/c the US has cut off trade and sanctioned Iran & Syria. Lebanon is cut off from its natural hinterland in Syria. Jordan has exploded in demonstrations b/c of economic hopelessness. Both need trade w Syria. So does Iraq.

12. Those who argue that Iran is a "malignant" force and dooms the future of the region must explain what the alternative is. Today, the US & the KSA do not offer a good alternative. They propose only sanctions and continued war by other means.

13. Many Iranian, Iraqi & Syrians pray for better governments, less corruption & greater freedoms. But the change that is being planned in Washington is unlikely to bring prosperity or reform. Only economic growth will lead to internal change & greater liberalism in the long run.

14. Israel can look after itself in Syria. It's military is far superior to Iran's. Few believe it cannot draw red-lines to contain Iran in Syria. Better for US to provide Israel w help to limit Iran activity close to Golan, than have US troops sucked into Syria occupation.

15. Using the presence of the fairly inconsequential Liwa Al Baqir militia in Syria that is Iran backed & has verbally threatened U.S. troops to justify a much larger and deleterious U.S. policy in the region does not see the forest for the trees.

16. Washington should allow the governments of the region to rebuild. It should allow a new regional balance of power to emerge between Iran, KSA, Turkey & Israel without a heavy US military presence. The US should not seek to turn Syria into a quagmire for Iran and Russia.

17. The US can do much humanitarian good in the region by its example, by helping refugees, & by guiding a new balance of power that limits war & preserves region peace, reconciliation, & recovery