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Av vad som framgår av sammanfattningarna...
Ursprungligen postat av polox
Det finns mängder av studier. En del finner signifikanta samband, andra inte. Avgörande är exponeringens storlek. Studier från Fukushima lär vi få vänta 20-30 år med att få se.
Jag har dock ingen möjlighet att ge någon uttömmande information om detta, vänd dig i så fall till någon forskare i ämnet.
Vad gäller specifikt leukemi, som du nämner, se t.ex.
Cardis et al: Effects of Low Doses and Low Dose Rates of External Ionizing Radiation: Cancer Mortality among Nuclear Industry Workers in Three Countries
"Mortality from leukemia, excluding chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL)-the cause of death most strongly and consistently related to radiation dose in studies of atomic bomb survivors and other populations exposed at high dose rates-was significantly associated with cumulative external radiation dose (one-sided P value = 0.046; 119 deaths). Among the 31 other specific types of cancer studied, a significant association was observed only for multiple myeloma (one-sided P value = 0.037; 44 deaths), and this was attributable primarily to the associations reported previously between this disease and radiation dose in the Hanford (U.S.) and Sellafield (UK) cohorts. The excess relative risk (ERR) estimates for all cancers excluding leukemia, and leukemia excluding CLL, the two main groupings of causes of death for which risk estimates have been derived from studies of atomic bomb survivors, were -0.07 per Sv [90% confidence interval (CI): -0.4, 0.3] and 2.18 per Sv (90% CI: 0.1, 5.7), respectively. These values correspond to a relative risk of 0.99 for all cancers excluding leukemia and 1.22 for leukemia excluding CLL for a cumulative protracted dose of 100 mSv compared to 0 mSv. "
Shilnikova et al: Cancer Mortality Risk among Workers at the Mayak Nuclear Complex
"We evaluated the cancer risks associated with protracted exposure to external whole-body g radiation at high cumulative doses (the average dose is 0.8 Gy and the highest doses exceed 10 Gy) in Russian nuclear workers." ... "Under a linear dose–response model, the excess relative risk for lung, liver and skeletal cancers as a group (668 deaths) adjusted for plutonium exposure is 0.30 per gray (P , 0.001) and 0.08 per gray (P , 0.001) for all other solid cancers (1062 deaths). The solid cancer dose–response functions appear to be nonlinear, with the excess risk estimates at doses of less than 3 Gy being about twice those predicted by the linear model. Plutonium exposure was associated with increased risks both for lung, liver and skeletal cancers (the sites of primary plutonium deposition)
and for other solid cancers as a group. A significant dose response, with no indication of plutonium exposure effects, was found for leukemia. Excess risks for leukemia exhibited a significant dependence on the time since the dose was received. For doses received within 3 to 5 years of death the excess relative risk per gray was estimated to be about 7 (P , 0.001), but this risk was only 0.45 (P 5 0.02) for doses received 5 to 45 years prior to death."
Engels et al: Cancer Mortality among Nuclear Workers in Belgium
"No increase in leukemia mortality was observed, but only few leukemias had to be expected and few were actually observed."
Jag har dock ingen möjlighet att ge någon uttömmande information om detta, vänd dig i så fall till någon forskare i ämnet.
Vad gäller specifikt leukemi, som du nämner, se t.ex.
Cardis et al: Effects of Low Doses and Low Dose Rates of External Ionizing Radiation: Cancer Mortality among Nuclear Industry Workers in Three Countries
"Mortality from leukemia, excluding chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL)-the cause of death most strongly and consistently related to radiation dose in studies of atomic bomb survivors and other populations exposed at high dose rates-was significantly associated with cumulative external radiation dose (one-sided P value = 0.046; 119 deaths). Among the 31 other specific types of cancer studied, a significant association was observed only for multiple myeloma (one-sided P value = 0.037; 44 deaths), and this was attributable primarily to the associations reported previously between this disease and radiation dose in the Hanford (U.S.) and Sellafield (UK) cohorts. The excess relative risk (ERR) estimates for all cancers excluding leukemia, and leukemia excluding CLL, the two main groupings of causes of death for which risk estimates have been derived from studies of atomic bomb survivors, were -0.07 per Sv [90% confidence interval (CI): -0.4, 0.3] and 2.18 per Sv (90% CI: 0.1, 5.7), respectively. These values correspond to a relative risk of 0.99 for all cancers excluding leukemia and 1.22 for leukemia excluding CLL for a cumulative protracted dose of 100 mSv compared to 0 mSv. "
Shilnikova et al: Cancer Mortality Risk among Workers at the Mayak Nuclear Complex
"We evaluated the cancer risks associated with protracted exposure to external whole-body g radiation at high cumulative doses (the average dose is 0.8 Gy and the highest doses exceed 10 Gy) in Russian nuclear workers." ... "Under a linear dose–response model, the excess relative risk for lung, liver and skeletal cancers as a group (668 deaths) adjusted for plutonium exposure is 0.30 per gray (P , 0.001) and 0.08 per gray (P , 0.001) for all other solid cancers (1062 deaths). The solid cancer dose–response functions appear to be nonlinear, with the excess risk estimates at doses of less than 3 Gy being about twice those predicted by the linear model. Plutonium exposure was associated with increased risks both for lung, liver and skeletal cancers (the sites of primary plutonium deposition)
and for other solid cancers as a group. A significant dose response, with no indication of plutonium exposure effects, was found for leukemia. Excess risks for leukemia exhibited a significant dependence on the time since the dose was received. For doses received within 3 to 5 years of death the excess relative risk per gray was estimated to be about 7 (P , 0.001), but this risk was only 0.45 (P 5 0.02) for doses received 5 to 45 years prior to death."
Engels et al: Cancer Mortality among Nuclear Workers in Belgium
"No increase in leukemia mortality was observed, but only few leukemias had to be expected and few were actually observed."
Angående referens #1: http://www.jstor.org/pss/3579020
De studerar 32 olika typer av cancer, och hittar saker med en sannolikhet av 1 på 21 respektive 1 på 26. Det är vad man statistiskt kan förvänta sig om det är helt slumpvist fördelat. Intressant nog så selektiv-citerar du även den korta sammanfattning som finns tillgänglig på nätet, den innehåller även följande:
There was no evidence of an association between radiation dose and mortality from all causes or from all cancers.
De ser alltså ingen statistisk ökning av antalet cancerfall, sedan studerar de 32 specifika typer och hittar något som statistiskt sker oftare än 1 på 32. Också detta finns i den sammanfattning som finns online:
These values correspond to a relative risk of 0.99 for all cancers excluding leukemia and 1.22 for leukemia excluding CLL for a cumulative protracted dose of 100 mSv compared to 0 mSv. These estimates, which did not differ significantly across cohorts or between men and women, are the most comprehensive and precise direct estimates of cancer risk associated with low-dose protracted exposures obtained to date. Although they are lower than the linear estimates obtained from studies of atomic bomb survivors, they are compatible with a range of possibilities, from a reduction of risk at low doses, to risks twice those on which current radiation protection recommendations are based."
Anser du att man kan säga att det är statistiskt säkerhetsställt om man studerar 32 olika typer och hittar något som statistiskt sker 1 på 21? Summerar man alla cancertyper är deras resultat att det inte finns någon skillnad alls mellan 0 mSv och 100 mSv.
Angående referens #2.
"High cumulative doses". Medelvärde på 800 mGy (~800 mSv) och högsta på 10 Gy (~10 Sv). Betydligt högre dos än de som arbetar på Fukushima tillåts få.
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Senast redigerad av Sorken80 2011-08-02 kl. 00:33.
Senast redigerad av Sorken80 2011-08-02 kl. 00:33.
