Giovanni [migrant från Guatemala] is part of a Central American exodus of people that has been increasing for decades. The recent caravans are the most recent chapter. And while there are complex and compounding reasons for the massive displacements and migrations—especially rising violence (in places like Honduras, for example, after the 2009 military coup) and systemic poverty—there is another driver behind the movement of people seeking refuge in the U.S.: climate change.Vi noterar den inverterade bibliska referensen från Giovanni - vår moderne Noa - som genom närmast gudomlig vägledning räddar sig och sina lantarbetarfränder från den samtida syndatorkan. Noteras även att Herrens vrede över mänsklighetens synder först "recently" blivit rätt uttolkad och förstådd som vedergällning för klimatförändrande försyndelser, här i form av strafftorka efter uteblivet regn i "fyrtio dagar och fyrtio nätter" Men nu har Giovanni-Noa skådat olivkvisten i form av sluga liberalers och vänsteraktivistiska klimat- och migrantfanatiska profeters löften om att alla som inte förmått rätta mun efter matsäcken ska bjudas fri spis i ännu relativt välordnade länder.
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Giovanni told me about the droughts back in his home of San Cristobal Frontera. It hadn't rained for "40 days and 40 nights," he said. The crops in the milpas—subsistence farm plots of corn, beans, and squash—were wilting, and the harvests failing. The cattle were skinny and dying of starvation. Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador lie in the trajectory of the so-called "dry corridor" of Central America that stretches from Southern Mexico to Panama. This epithet is a recently adopted description of the region, to describe the droughts that have risen in intensity and frequency over the last 10 years.
According to the United Nations Refugee Agency, "Families and communities have already started to suffer from disasters and the consequences of climate change." From 2008 to 2015, the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre reported that at least 22.5 million had been displaced per year because of climate-related-events, the equivalent of 62,000 people per day. Over this time, environmental forces uprooted more people than war. And in 2017 alone, disasters displaced 4.5 million people in the Americas.Det ena klimatapokalyptiska fyndet staplat på det andra, siffror kombinerade med profetior i stil med: "As climate scientist Chris Castro told me in 2017, Central America is ground zero for climate change in the Americas. Among the thousands of people caravanning north are climate refugees."
In September, the World Food Programme essentially confirmed what Giovanni had told me earlier that summer in Sasabe. According to reporting by the Thomson Reuters Foundation, the WFP said, "Poor harvests caused by drought in Central America could leave more than two million people hungry" and "climate change was creating drier conditions in the region."
Weapons of Mass Migration: Forced Displacement as an Instrument of Coercionhttps://calhoun.nps.edu/bitstream/ha...=1&isAllowed=y
Coercion is generally understood to refer to the practice of inducing or preventing changes in political behavior through the use of threats, intimidation, or some other form of pressure—most commonly, military force. This article focuses on a very particular nonmilitary method of applying coercive pressure—the use of migration and refugee crises as instruments of persuasion. Conventional wisdom suggests this kind of coercion is rare at best. Traditional international relations theory avers that it should rarely succeed. In fact, given the asymmetry in capabilities that tends to exist between would be coercers and their generally more powerful targets, it should rarely even be attempted. However, as this article demonstrates, not only is this kind of coercion attempted far more frequently than the accepted wisdom would suggest but that it also tends to succeed far more often than capabilities-based theories would predict.
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Coercive engineered migrations (or coercion-driven migrations) are “those cross-border population movements that are deliberately created or manipulated in order to induce political,military and/or economic concessions from a target state or states.” The instruments employed to affect this kind of coercion are myriad and diverse. They run the gamut from compulsory to permissive, from the employment of hostile threats and the use of military force (as were used during the 1967-1970 Biafran and 1992-1995 Bosnian civil wars) through the offer of positive inducements and provision of financial incentives (as were offered to North Vietnamese by the United States in 1954-1955, following the First Indochina War) to the straightforward opening of normally sealed borders (as was done by President Erich Honecker of East Germany in the early 1980s).
Coercive engineered migration is frequently, but not always, undertaken in the context of population outflows strategically generated for other reasons. In fact, it represents just one subset of a broader class of events that all rely on the creation and exploitation of such crises as means to political and military ends—a phenomenon I call strategic engineered migration. Coercive engineered migration is often embedded within mass migrations strategically engineered for dispossessive, exportive, or militarized reasons. It is likely, at least in part as a consequence of its embedded and often camouflaged nature, that its prevalence has also been generally under-recognized and its significance, underappreciated. Indeed, it is a phenomenon that for many observers has been hiding in plain sight.
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In fact, well over forty groups of displaced people have been used as pawns in at least fifty-six discrete attempts at coercive engineered migration since the advent of the 1951 United Nations Refugee Convention alone.
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However, I focus on the post-1951 period because it was only after World War II—and particularly after ratifcation of the 1951 Refugee Convenition—that international rules and norms regarding the protection of those fleeing violence and persecution were codified. It was likewise only then that migration and refugees “became a question of high politics” and that, for reasons discussed later in this article, the potential efficacy of this unconventional strategy really began to blossom.
To put the prevalence of coercive engineered migration in perspective, at a rate of at least 1.0 cases/year (between 1951 and 2006), it is significantly less common than interstate territorial disputes (approximately 4.82 cases/year). But, at the same time, it appears to be markedly more prevalent than both intrastate wars (approximately 0.68 cases/year) and extended intermediate deterrence crises (approximately 0.58/year). At a minimum, this suggests that the conventional wisdom about the relative infrequency of coercive engineered migration (my operative null hypothesis) requires reconsideration.
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Coercive engineered migration can be exercised by three distinct types of challengers: generators, agents provocateurs, and opportunists. Generators directly create or threaten to create cross-border population movements unless targets concede to their demands. Agents provocateurs by contrast do not create crises directly, but rather deliberately act in ways designed to incite others to generate outflows. Many see themselves as engaging in a kind of altruistic Machiavellianism, whereby the ends (e.g., autonomy, independence, or the restoration of democracy) justify the employment of these rather unconventional means. Finally, opportunists play no direct role in the creation of migration crises, but simply exploit for their own gain the existence of outflows generated or catalyzed by others.
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