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Fullhora
Ja vi har "malt ner" hundratusentals unga män på båda sidor till köttfärs och säkert försvagat ryssen, men samtidigt bevisligen lärt ryssen kämpa mot moderna europeiska vapen. Varav många riskerar hamna i ryska händer.
Om de börjar samarbeta mer med Kina, och kanske mer med muslimska världen, då behöver vi öka försvarsbudgeten till minst 10% ett bra tag framöver med motsvarande nedskärningar på alla andra bekvämligheter folk är vana vid.
Men du har rätt i att det blir strålande tider för försvarsindustrin. Kan bli spännande med alla nya AI-system och kärnvapen i rymden med ny kapprustning. Många kommer att jubla på båda sidor.
Att försvaga. Ryssland är vad det hela handlar om, och som en produkt därav kunna tillsätta en medgörlig regim. RAND-Corporation lade upp riktlinjerna redan för fem år sedan. Ukrainska liv är bara offer för den ”goda saken”
”Benefits:
Expanding U.S. assistance to Ukraine, including lethal military assistance, would likely increase the costs to Russia, in both blood and treasure, of holding the Donbass region. More Russian aid to the separatists and an additional Russian troop presence would likely be required, leading to larger expenditures, equipment losses, and Russian casualties.”
”Risks:
Alternatively, Russia might counter-escalate, committing more troops and pushing them deeper into Ukraine. Russia might even preempt U.S. action, escalating before any additional U.S. aid arrives. Such escalation might extend Russia; Eastern Ukraine is already a drain. Taking more of Ukraine might only increase the burden, albeit at the expense of the Ukrainian people. However, such a move might also come at a significant cost to Ukraine and to U.S. prestige and credibility. This could produce disproportionately large Ukrainian casualties, territorial losses, and refugee flows. It might even lead Ukraine into a disadvantageous peace”
”More vocal U.S. advocacy of NATO membership for Ukraine would likely strengthen both Ukrainian morale and Russian determination to prevent such a development, thereby perhaps further extending Russia’s commitment and costs”.
”Likelihood of Success:
Eastern Ukraine is already a significant drain on Russian resources, exacerbated by the accompanying Western sanctions. Increasing U.S. military aid would certainly drive up the Russian costs, but doing so could also increase the loss of Ukrainian lives and territory or result in a disadvantageous peace settlement. This would generally be seen as a serious setback for U.S. policy”.