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Ursprungligen postat av
MittMalmoe
Innan du får för mycket luft under vingarna och ditt självförtroende på felaktiga grunder stärks.. vad sägs om att först ta en titt på mina tidigare inlägg.. där kommer du se att jag i alla högsta grad lyfter både IFR, CFR som Mortality Rate..
Jag har gjort som du sade, och tittat runt bland dina tidigare inlägg. Där hittade jag denna länk:
Citat:
Ursprungligen postat av
MittMalmoe
Citat från Our World in Data:
There is a straightforward question that most people would like answered. If someone is infected with COVID-19, how likely is that person to die?
This question is simple, but surprisingly hard to answer.
Here we explain why that is. We’ll discuss the “case fatality rate”, the “crude mortality rate”, and the “infection fatality rate”, and why they’re all different.
The key point is that the “case fatality rate”, the most commonly discussed measure of the risk of dying, is not the answer to the question, for two reasons. One, it relies on the number of confirmed cases, and many cases are not confirmed; and two, it relies on the total number of deaths, and with COVID-19, some people who are sick and will die soon have not yet died. These two facts mean that it is extremely difficult to make accurate estimates of the true risk of death.
...
What we want to know isn’t the case fatality rate: it’s the infection fatality rate
Before we look at what the CFR does tell us about the mortality risk, it is helpful to see what it doesn’t.
Remember the question we asked at the beginning: if someone is infected with COVID-19, how likely is it that they will die? The answer to that question is captured by the infection fatality rate, or IFR.
The IFR is the number of deaths from a disease divided by the total number of cases. If 10 people die of the disease, and 500 actually have it, then the IFR is [10 / 500], or 2%.
To work out the IFR, we need two numbers: the total number of cases and the total number of deaths.
However, as we explain here, the total number of cases of COVID-19 is not known. That’s partly because not everyone with COVID-19 is tested.
We may be able to estimate the total number of cases and use it to calculate the IFR – and researchers do this. But the total number of cases is not known, so the IFR cannot be accurately calculated. And, despite what some media reports imply, the CFR is not the same as – or, probably, even similar to – the IFR. Next, we’ll discuss why.
Det råder alltså vissa svårigheter med att beräkna IFR. Ifall du vet någon pålitlig källa som har gjort en trovärdig uppskattning av IFR, så får du gärna bidra med länk och citat.
Bland dina inlägg fann jag detta:
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Ursprungligen postat av
MittMalmoe
Citat:
Ursprungligen postat av
Hanna-Wigh
Från tidigare länkade papper:'
To measure IFR accurately, a complete picture of the number of infections of, and deaths caused by, the disease must be known.
https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/estimating-mortality-from-covid-19
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Calculating IFR
The true severity of a disease can be described by the
Infection Fatality Ratio:
Serological testing of a representative random sample of the population to detect evidence of exposure to a pathogen is an important method to estimate the true number of infected individuals [7,8,9]. Many such serological surveys are currently being undertaken worldwide [10], and some have thus far suggested substantial under-ascertainment of cases, with estimates of IFR converging at approximately 0.5 - 1% [10-12]...."
Här bedöms IFR ligga i ett intervall mellan 0,5 - 1 %. Har det kommit nya bedömningar av IFR, med mindre osäkerhets-intervall, sedan detta dokument publicerades 4:e augusti 2020?