Rysk ekonomisk politik: Varför går det så bra?

Turkiets statliga gasbolag Botas och energikoncernen Shell har skrivit på ett tioårigt avtal om leveranser av flytande fossil gas (LNG), som även kan komma att säljas vidare från Turkiet till Europa.
Shell ska enligt avtalet leverera motsvarande fyra miljarder kubikmeter LNG per år från och med 2027, enligt Turkiets energiminister Alparslan Bayraktar. Detta motsvarar omkring 8 procent av Turkiets totala gaskonsumtion 2023.
Inför Shell-leveranserna tar Botas in fossilgas via ledning från Ryssland, Azerbajdzjan och Iran och i LNG-form från Algeriet och USA.
I maj skrev Botas på ett liknande tioårigt avtal med den amerikanska energikoncernen Exxon Mobil om LNG-leveranser.
I fjol stod Ryssland för omkring 40 procent av den gas som importerades av Turkiet, en andel som antas minska med de nya avtalen med Shell och Exxon Mobil.

Turkey: New Gas Pipeline to Supply Europe

01/09/2024

Last week, the Turkish government announced the start of construction of a new gas pipeline that will initially connect Turkey’s territory to Bulgaria and then to many other European countries. According to Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar, “the new project is called Turkish Stream-2 and will allow Turkey to export 7 to 8 billion cubic meters of Turkish Blend – a mixture of gas produced by Turkey and imported from other countries – to Europe every year.”

As Turkish state-owned energy monopoly BOTAS and Russian gas giant Gazprom are working intensively to build a gas hub in Turkey, the share of Russian methane in the new blend will be at least 40 percent.

Russia Services Growth Quickens In August

The Russian service sector activity expanded at the fastest pace in seven months in August amid a further improvement in demand conditions, survey results from S&P Global showed on Wednesday.

The services purchasing managers' index, or PMI, climbed to 52.3 in August from 51.1 in July. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.

Greater activity was commonly linked to stronger client demand and an associated upturn in new business, the survey said.

New orders grew at the fastest pace in five months amid improved customer demand. This encouraged firms to raise their workforce numbers, with the rate of job creation accelerating to the sharpest since January.

Central Bank of Russia analysts see signs of disinflationary trend as demand moderates

emand in the Russian economy has moderated with signs of a disinflationary trend emerging, the Central Bank of Russia's Research and Forecasting Department said in its latest Talking Trends bulletin.

The analysts also mention slower growth of retail lending and less active growth in household consumption.

"Annual inflation probably peaked in July. More and more signs point to a demand growth in the economy slowing in the third quarter. If this trend continues, inflationary pressure will again begin to ease. However, there is every reason to believe that this process will not be rapid. The reason for this is the prevalence of both demand-side and supply-side pro-inflationary factors, which are also characterized by high inertia (inflation expectations)," they said.

To return inflation to 4% in 2025, tighter monetary conditions are needed than in 2024 H1. "Whether this will require an additional increase in the key rate will depend on incoming data," the Central Bank analysts said.

The Risk Scenario is the least likely of all those considered and, apparently, less probable than the same Risk Scenario we modelled in last year’s Guidelines.

[..]

As before, the third, Risk, scenario illustrates the possible effects of a large-scale and strong shock originating from the global economy and commodity markets.

[..]

Finally, Risk Scenario assumptions are close to those for last year. They give an illustrative account of the fallout from a global financial crisis that is comparable in scale to the 2007–2008 crisis. With major economies in recession, global demand declines, and commodity prices drop significantly. To set off the shortfall in oil and gas revenues, the National Wealth Fund has to be mobilised extensively. This very tough scenario assumes that the liquid part of the National Wealth Fund, already considerably down in 2022–2024, is exhausted by late 2025 or early 2026.