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Ursprungligen postat av
Bush1
Du citerar alltså summeringen för politikerna som ofta inte speglar vad de riktiga rapporterna innehåller och självklart måste det finnas med prognoser baserade på osäkra klimatmodeller.
Så här säger IPCC:
“heavier rainfall does not always lead to greater flooding.”
“Confidence about peak flow trends over past decades on the global scale is low, but there are regions experiencing increases, including parts of Asia, southern South America, the northeast USA, northwestern Europe, and the Amazon, and regions experiencing decreases, including parts of the Mediterranean, Australia, Africa, and the southwestern USA.”
“there is low confidence in the human influence on the changes in high river flows on the global scale”
Kina har alltid haft många översvämningar. De har även sedan mitten av 1900-talet dödat "alla" sina insekter och fåglar.
Du lyfter formuleringar som uppenbart faller dig i smaken och bortser från sammanhanget.
“heavier rainfall does not always lead to greater flooding.”
är hämtat från
Sid 1989:
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FAQ 8.2: Will floods become more severe or more frequent as a result of climate change?
A warmer climate increases the amount and intensity of rainfall during wet events, and this is expected to amplify the severity of flooding. However, the link between rainfall and flooding is complex, so while the most severe flooding events are expected to worsen, floods could become rarer in some regions.
…
However, heavier rainfall does not always lead to greater flooding. This is because flooding also depends upon the type of river basin, the surface landscape, the extent and duration of the rainfall, and how wet the ground is before the rainfall event.
Du lyfter fram en mening, som om den är väldigt väsentlig. Om du läser fortsättningen i stycket så ser du att det är helt självklart.
Det är sedan länge också självklart att skyfall och översvämningar inte ökar globalt. Tvärtom sker förändringarna olika i olika delar i världen, en del regionen blir blötare, andra blir torrare.
Avslutningen av FAQ 8.2:
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A mix of both increases and decreases in flooding have been observed in some regions and these changes have been attributed to multiple causes, including changes in snowmelt, soil moisture and rainfall. Although we know that a warming climate will intensify rainfall events, local and regional trends are expected to vary in both direction and magnitude as global warming results in multiple, and sometimes counteracting, influences. However, even accounting for the many factors that generate flooding, when weather patterns cause flood events in a warmer future, these floods will be more severe.
“
there is low confidence in the human influence on the changes in high river flows on the global scale”
är hämtat från:
Chapter 11, sid 2837:
Citat:
As there is only one study and multiple caveats, including relatively poor observational data coverage, there is low confidence about human influence on the changes in high river flows on the global scale.
In summary there is low confidence in the human influence on the changes in high river flows on the global scale. Confidence is in general low in attributing changes in the probability or magnitude of flood events to human influence because of a limited number of studies and differences in the results of these studies, and large modelling uncertainties.
Himmelsfloder har dykt upp på senare tid och det finns bara en studie om det. Därför är trovärdigheten för kopplingen till våra utsläpp låg.
Alla citat från IPCC:
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Full_Report.pdf
Det gäller att förstå vad som skrivs i sin helhet, lösryckta citat kan ge en helt annan bild. Du klev i den fällan.
