Vinnaren i pepparkakshustävlingen!
2019-02-11, 12:09
  #25633
Medlem
lasternassummas avatar
Met Office predicts 2014-2023 will be the warmest decade for 150 years

Met Office låter som om dom är ganska säkra...
How confident is the Met Office of its prediction?
«The Met Office says it has a 90% confidence limit in the forecasts for the years ahead.
It says that from 2019 to 2023, we will see temperatures ranging from 1.03C to 1.57C above the 1850-1900 level, with enhanced warming over much of the globe, especially over areas like the Arctic.
The research team says it is pretty certain in its predictions because of its past experience. The team's previous forecast, made in 2013, predicted the rapid rate of warming that's been observed over the past five years. It even predicted some of the lesser known details such as the patch of cooling seen in the North Atlantic and the cooler spots in the Southern Ocean.»
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-47144058

Citera
2019-02-11, 12:15
  #25634
Medlem
humanlifes avatar
Citat:
Ursprungligen postat av everythingis
Det kommer att gå utför mycket snabbare än vad forskarna tror... Det finns så många faktorer som påverkar utvecklingen negativt, och de faktorerna är inte med i beräkningarna i någon högre grad.

Sedan så tror jag att de snarare håller sig i underkant och presenterar siffror från "best case scenarios" oftare än "worst case scenarios" för att inte bli beskyllda för att vara alarmister. Det är känslan jag får iallafall.

Klimatförändringar är naturliga i jordens historia, men att det går så fort att det märks skillnader under en generation människor är nog inte naturligt, förutom vid kataklysmiska händelser.
Ja, vi vet att de håller sig i underkant i sina prediktioner, just av de skälet du anger.

Jag blev tvungen att leta upp ordet kataklysm. Det betyder alltså naturkatastrof. Vi människor har tyvärr blivit en naturkatastrof. Förvisso långsamt verkande...tack och lov.
Citera
2019-02-11, 13:47
  #25635
Medlem
humanlifes avatar
Citat:
Ursprungligen postat av lasternassumma
Met Office predicts 2014-2023 will be the warmest decade for 150 years

Met Office låter som om dom är ganska säkra...
How confident is the Met Office of its prediction?
«The Met Office says it has a 90% confidence limit in the forecasts for the years ahead.
It says that from 2019 to 2023, we will see temperatures ranging from 1.03C to 1.57C above the 1850-1900 level, with enhanced warming over much of the globe, especially over areas like the Arctic.
The research team says it is pretty certain in its predictions because of its past experience. The team's previous forecast, made in 2013, predicted the rapid rate of warming that's been observed over the past five years. It even predicted some of the lesser known details such as the patch of cooling seen in the North Atlantic and the cooler spots in the Southern Ocean.»
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-47144058

Ojdå! Inom de närmsta 4 åren kommer vi alltså uppleva en tid med 1,57C högre medeltemperatur.
Undrar hur det blir.
Citera
2019-02-11, 15:33
  #25636
Medlem
arbetets avatar
Tydligen har Elon Musk lurat på Australien "världens största batteri" och så här gick det:

Renewable Storage Myth Busted: Elon Musk’s Great Battery Conjob Exposed
We’re now told the solution to the chaos delivered by wind and solar is giant lithium-ion batteries, of the kind peddled by Elon Musk. The reefer-smoking, Californian carpetbagger managed to offload one unit in wind power obsessed, South Australia, collected $150 million, and was never seen again.
/…/
Let’s look at the evidence from 24th Jan …

As wind power collapsed into the afternoon, prices in South Australia surged to $14,500 Mwh (they averaged around $40 Mwh before all these ‘cheap’ renewables flooded into the grid) at around 4.30pm ‘’the world’s biggest battery’’ started to dribble in 30MW to the grid.

The 30MW was less than 1% of South Australia’s total demand, and less than 0.1% of the National grid’s demand.

The world’s biggest battery continued to dribble out around 30MW until 7.30pm, then it ran flat, rendering it completely useless as peak demand hit at 7.30pm.

Meanwhile the emergency diesel generators (chewing through a reported 80,000 litres of diesel an hour) were doing the real work in SA, pumping out over 400MW at a time on demand – and they continued to so as demand peaked at 7.30pm, when the world’s largest battery had given up the ghost.

So at peak demand, in the renewables paradise of South Australia, 97% of their electricity was coming from fossil fuels.

Over the afternoon, I estimate the ‘’world’s biggest battery’’ delivered only around 100 Mwh of electricity – compared to 2000Mwh by the diesel generators.

The facts should be clear from the evidence that it’s a dangerous delusion that Australia can run the economy with solar/wind backed up by big batteries.

But sadly once leftists have been radicalised by green propaganda – evidence, engineering & economics no longer matter, because their belief is a semi-religious one based on feelings and emotions and their minds are closed to rational thoughts and logic.
https://stopthesethings.com/2019/02/11/renewable-storage-myth-busted-elon-musks-great-battery-conjob-exposed/
We're not here to debate the wind industri, we're here to DESTROY IT!

__________________
Senast redigerad av arbetet 2019-02-11 kl. 15:37.
Citera
2019-02-11, 16:09
  #25637
Medlem
Trumpetflugans avatar
Citat:
Ursprungligen postat av arbetet
Tydligen har Elon Musk lurat på Australien "världens största batteri" och så här gick det:

Renewable Storage Myth Busted: Elon Musk’s Great Battery Conjob Exposed
We’re now told the solution to the chaos delivered by wind and solar is giant lithium-ion batteries, of the kind peddled by Elon Musk. The reefer-smoking, Californian carpetbagger managed to offload one unit in wind power obsessed, South Australia, collected $150 million, and was never seen again.
/…/
Let’s look at the evidence from 24th Jan …

As wind power collapsed into the afternoon, prices in South Australia surged to $14,500 Mwh (they averaged around $40 Mwh before all these ‘cheap’ renewables flooded into the grid) at around 4.30pm ‘’the world’s biggest battery’’ started to dribble in 30MW to the grid.

The 30MW was less than 1% of South Australia’s total demand, and less than 0.1% of the National grid’s demand.

The world’s biggest battery continued to dribble out around 30MW until 7.30pm, then it ran flat, rendering it completely useless as peak demand hit at 7.30pm.

Meanwhile the emergency diesel generators (chewing through a reported 80,000 litres of diesel an hour) were doing the real work in SA, pumping out over 400MW at a time on demand – and they continued to so as demand peaked at 7.30pm, when the world’s largest battery had given up the ghost.

So at peak demand, in the renewables paradise of South Australia, 97% of their electricity was coming from fossil fuels.

Over the afternoon, I estimate the ‘’world’s biggest battery’’ delivered only around 100 Mwh of electricity – compared to 2000Mwh by the diesel generators.

The facts should be clear from the evidence that it’s a dangerous delusion that Australia can run the economy with solar/wind backed up by big batteries.

But sadly once leftists have been radicalised by green propaganda – evidence, engineering & economics no longer matter, because their belief is a semi-religious one based on feelings and emotions and their minds are closed to rational thoughts and logic.
https://stopthesethings.com/2019/02/11/renewable-storage-myth-busted-elon-musks-great-battery-conjob-exposed/
We're not here to debate the wind industri, we're here to DESTROY IT!

Jag blir uppriktigt nyfiken på hur din och andra klimatförnekares källkritik egentligen fungerar. Är allt som finns skrivet på internet sant? Jag ser inte hur ett ständigt referande till tvivelaktiga bloggar på bekostnad av vetenskapligt refererande skulle kunna komma från någon annat än följande:
[php]
if (on_the_internet() && my_political_bias_stimulated())
{
accept_as_reliable();
}
[/php]

Hur skiljer ni er metodik från kreationisters och antivaxares?
All vetenskap avfärdas som en del av det globalistiska pk - etablissemanget (eliten), så länge den inte tilltalar er politiska nerv.
klimatsans
Klinatupplysningen
Notrickszone
principia-scientific
wuwt
Cornwall alliance
stopthesethings

Varför föredra källor som dessa framför vetenskap? När de dessutom gång på gång i denna tråd visat sig opålitliga? Jag kanske kan uppfattas dömande med denna fråga. Men jag är uppriktigt nyfiken hur ni viktar dessa mot varandra? Vill du svara lite kort hur dina källkritiska förmågor arbetar när du letar information?
Citera
2019-02-11, 16:16
  #25638
Medlem
arbetets avatar
Citat:
Ursprungligen postat av Trumpetflugan
Jag blir uppriktigt nyfiken på hur din och andra klimatförnekares källkritik egentligen fungerar. Är allt som finns skrivet på internet sant? Jag ser inte hur ett ständigt referande till tvivelaktiga bloggar på bekostnad av vetenskapligt refererande skulle kunna komma från någon annat än följande:
[php]
if (on_the_internet() && my_political_bias_stimulated())
{
accept_as_reliable();
}
[/php]

Hur skiljer ni er metodik från kreationisters och antivaxares?
All vetenskap avfärdas som en del av det globalistiska pk - etablissemanget (eliten), så länge den inte tilltalar er politiska nerv.
klimatsans
Klinatupplysningen
Notrickszone
principia-scientific
wuwt
Cornwall alliance
stopthesethings

Varför föredra källor som dessa framför vetenskap? När de dessutom gång på gång i denna tråd visat sig opålitliga? Jag kanske kan uppfattas dömande med denna fråga. Men jag är uppriktigt nyfiken hur ni viktar dessa mot varandra? Vill du svara lite kort hur dina källkritiska förmågor arbetar när du letar information?
Iofs ska man aldrig lita på politiker men Craig Kelly är MP:
Craig Kelly - Liberal Federal Member for Hughes in Sydney's South including parts of the Sutherland Shire and Liverpool Council areas. Authorised by Craig Kelly MP, Liberal Party of Australia, Sutherland, NSW.
Här är hans originalinlägg på Facebook:

Craig Kelly
27 januari kl. 14:30 ·

THE GREAT BATTERY CONJOB EXPOSED

To keep the subsidies flowing and the public hoodwinked, green-rent-seekers have peddled the delusion that the intermittency of solar/wind can be solved with ‘’big batteries’’.

This conjob was first sold in South Australia, as with their experiment of a 50% Renewable Energy Target descending into a costly farce, and to cover-up the fact they needed spend several hundred million on emergency diesel generators to keep the lights on just before the state election, with Hollywood fanfare SA announced they were installing ‘’the world’s largest battery’’ to save the day.

And unsurprisingly, the green useless idiots of the left have swallowed this hook, line and sinker - as rent seekers continued to go laughing to the bank to cash their millions from subsidies.

Well the performance of the ‘’world’s largest battery’’ last Thursday exposed what a complete con job it’s been - and delusion that we can power our economy on solar panels, wind turbines and big batteries is as dangerous to the economy as rabies is in a dog.

Let’s look at the evidence from 24th Jan ...

As wind power collapsed into the afternoon, prices in South Australia surged to $14,500 Mwh (they averaged around $40 Mwh before all these ‘cheap’ renewables flooded into the grid) at around 4.30pm ‘’the world’s biggest battery’’ started to dribble in 30MW to the grid.

The 30MW was less than 1% of South Australia’s total demand, and less than 0.1% of the National grid’s demand.

The world’s biggest battery continued to dribble out around 30MW until 7.30pm, then it ran flat, rendering it completely useless as peak demand hit at 7.30pm.

Meanwhile the emergency diesel generators (chewing through a reported 80,000 litres of diesel an hour) were doing the real work in SA, pumping out over 400MW at a time on demand - and they continued to so as demand peaked at 7.30pm, when the world’s largest battery had given up the ghost.

So at peak demand, in the renewables paradise of South Australia, 97% of their electricity was coming from fossil fuels.

Over the afternoon, I estimate the ‘’world’s biggest battery’’ delivered only around 100 Mwh of electricity - compared to 2000Mwh by the diesel generators.

The facts should be clear from the evidence that it’s a dangerous delusion that Australia can run the economy with solar/wind backed up by big batteries.

But sadly once leftists have been radicalised by green propaganda - evidence, engineering & economics no longer matter, because their belief is a semi-religious one based on feelings and emotions and their minds are closed to rational thoughts and logic
.
https://www.facebook.com/CraigKellyMP/photos/a.117937578400885/1118287091699257/?type=3&theater

Han har dock en öppen sida så det går nog bra att ställa frågor till honom.

Mer info: https://www.craigkelly.com.au/
__________________
Senast redigerad av arbetet 2019-02-11 kl. 16:18.
Citera
2019-02-11, 16:20
  #25639
Medlem
arbetets avatar
Någon har räknat ut CO2-avtrycket för en stor vindsnurra tydligen:

So what’s the carbon foot print of a wind turbine with 45 tons of rebar & 481m3 of concrete?
Its carbon footprint is massive – try 241.85 tons of CO2.

https://web.archive.org/web/20140808072753/http://www.andysrant.com:80/2014/08/so-whats-the-carbon-foot-print-of-a-wind-turbine-with-45-tons-of-rebar-481m3-of-concrete.html

Kan det stämma?
Citera
2019-02-11, 16:29
  #25640
Medlem
Citat:
Ursprungligen postat av arbetet
Tydligen har Elon Musk lurat på Australien "världens största batteri" och så här gick det:
Låt oss anta att siffrorna i inlägget stämmer. Priset på el var $14,500 Mwh, batteriet levererade 100 MW dvs ett värde på $1,45 miljoner. (I praktiken säkert en hel del mindre eftersom priset knappast låg på toppvärdet hela tiden). Kostnad för inköp av elen som levererades, 100*$40, är försumbar i sammanhanget. Kostnaden för batteriet var £150 miljoner. Det betalade alltså på en dag tillbaka storleksordningen 1% av inköpskostnaden. Naturligtvis var detta ett extremfall och vinsten de flesta dagar är mycket mindre, men jag vet inte om det ger stöd för att se investeringen som ett fiasko.

Skall man ha batterier som backup i sådan här skala är dock knappast litiumbatterier en vettig lösning. Det behöver satsas rejält på att ta fram bättre flödesbatterier som är bättre lämpade för storskaliga, stationära anläggningar.
Citera
2019-02-11, 16:44
  #25641
Medlem
Citat:
Ursprungligen postat av arbetet
Tydligen har Elon Musk lurat på Australien "världens största batteri" och så här gick det:

Renewable Storage Myth Busted: Elon Musk’s Great Battery Conjob Exposed
We’re now told the solution to the chaos delivered by wind and solar is giant lithium-ion batteries, of the kind peddled by Elon Musk. The reefer-smoking, Californian carpetbagger managed to offload one unit in wind power obsessed, South Australia, collected $150 million, and was never seen again.
/…/
Let’s look at the evidence from 24th Jan …

As wind power collapsed into the afternoon, prices in South Australia surged to $14,500 Mwh (they averaged around $40 Mwh before all these ‘cheap’ renewables flooded into the grid) at around 4.30pm ‘’the world’s biggest battery’’ started to dribble in 30MW to the grid.

The 30MW was less than 1% of South Australia’s total demand, and less than 0.1% of the National grid’s demand.

The world’s biggest battery continued to dribble out around 30MW until 7.30pm, then it ran flat, rendering it completely useless as peak demand hit at 7.30pm.

Meanwhile the emergency diesel generators (chewing through a reported 80,000 litres of diesel an hour) were doing the real work in SA, pumping out over 400MW at a time on demand – and they continued to so as demand peaked at 7.30pm, when the world’s largest battery had given up the ghost.

So at peak demand, in the renewables paradise of South Australia, 97% of their electricity was coming from fossil fuels.

Over the afternoon, I estimate the ‘’world’s biggest battery’’ delivered only around 100 Mwh of electricity – compared to 2000Mwh by the diesel generators.

The facts should be clear from the evidence that it’s a dangerous delusion that Australia can run the economy with solar/wind backed up by big batteries.

But sadly once leftists have been radicalised by green propaganda – evidence, engineering & economics no longer matter, because their belief is a semi-religious one based on feelings and emotions and their minds are closed to rational thoughts and logic.
https://stopthesethings.com/2019/02/11/renewable-storage-myth-busted-elon-musks-great-battery-conjob-exposed/
We're not here to debate the wind industri, we're here to DESTROY IT!

Glömde Elon att berätta att man måste ladda ett batteri?
Citera
2019-02-11, 16:45
  #25642
Medlem
Trumpetflugans avatar
Citat:
Ursprungligen postat av arbetet
Iofs ska man aldrig lita på politiker men Craig Kelly är MP:
Craig Kelly - Liberal Federal Member for Hughes in Sydney's South including parts of the Sutherland Shire and Liverpool Council areas. Authorised by Craig Kelly MP, Liberal Party of Australia, Sutherland, NSW.
Här är hans originalinlägg på Facebook:

Craig Kelly
27 januari kl. 14:30 ·

THE GREAT BATTERY CONJOB EXPOSED

To keep the subsidies flowing and the public hoodwinked, green-rent-seekers have peddled the delusion that the intermittency of solar/wind can be solved with ‘’big batteries’’.

This conjob was first sold in South Australia, as with their experiment of a 50% Renewable Energy Target descending into a costly farce, and to cover-up the fact they needed spend several hundred million on emergency diesel generators to keep the lights on just before the state election, with Hollywood fanfare SA announced they were installing ‘’the world’s largest battery’’ to save the day.

And unsurprisingly, the green useless idiots of the left have swallowed this hook, line and sinker - as rent seekers continued to go laughing to the bank to cash their millions from subsidies.

Well the performance of the ‘’world’s largest battery’’ last Thursday exposed what a complete con job it’s been - and delusion that we can power our economy on solar panels, wind turbines and big batteries is as dangerous to the economy as rabies is in a dog.

Let’s look at the evidence from 24th Jan ...

As wind power collapsed into the afternoon, prices in South Australia surged to $14,500 Mwh (they averaged around $40 Mwh before all these ‘cheap’ renewables flooded into the grid) at around 4.30pm ‘’the world’s biggest battery’’ started to dribble in 30MW to the grid.

The 30MW was less than 1% of South Australia’s total demand, and less than 0.1% of the National grid’s demand.

The world’s biggest battery continued to dribble out around 30MW until 7.30pm, then it ran flat, rendering it completely useless as peak demand hit at 7.30pm.

Meanwhile the emergency diesel generators (chewing through a reported 80,000 litres of diesel an hour) were doing the real work in SA, pumping out over 400MW at a time on demand - and they continued to so as demand peaked at 7.30pm, when the world’s largest battery had given up the ghost.

So at peak demand, in the renewables paradise of South Australia, 97% of their electricity was coming from fossil fuels.

Over the afternoon, I estimate the ‘’world’s biggest battery’’ delivered only around 100 Mwh of electricity - compared to 2000Mwh by the diesel generators.

The facts should be clear from the evidence that it’s a dangerous delusion that Australia can run the economy with solar/wind backed up by big batteries.

But sadly once leftists have been radicalised by green propaganda - evidence, engineering & economics no longer matter, because their belief is a semi-religious one based on feelings and emotions and their minds are closed to rational thoughts and logic
.
https://www.facebook.com/CraigKellyMP/photos/a.117937578400885/1118287091699257/?type=3&theater

Han har dock en öppen sida så det går nog bra att ställa frågor till honom.

Mer info: https://www.craigkelly.com.au/
Förstod du inte frågan jag ställde? Den har inte med mp eller Elon att göra.
Citera
2019-02-11, 17:29
  #25643
Medlem
lasternassummas avatar
Senaste 12 månaderna, enligt Copernicus:
"– 1.0 to 1.1°C above the pre-industrial level."


Copernicus, det Europeiska övervakningsprogrammet som bl.a. övervakar den globala temperaturen med satelliter, använder 1981 till 2010 som referensperiod.
För den perioden anges den globala medeltemperaturen varit 0,63°C högre än temperaturen före industrialiseringen.

Under den varmaste 12-månadersperioden (under 2016/2017) var den globala medeltemperaturen nära 1,3°C över vad den var före industrialiseringen.

Under den senaste 12-månadersperioden (februari 2018 till januari 2019) var den globala medeltemperaturen ca 1,0 till 1,1°C över vad den var före industrialiseringen.

https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-january-2019

Vad kommer att hända nu?

Lite hjälp får vi från NAOOs ENSO-prognoser. Här är dagens ENSO-prognos.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Där sägs bl.a.:
"El Niño is expected to form and continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2019 (~65% chance)."

Citera
2019-02-11, 17:36
  #25644
Medlem
arbetets avatar
Citat:
Ursprungligen postat av Trumpetflugan
Förstod du inte frågan jag ställde? Den har inte med mp eller Elon att göra.
En politiker berättar ur vardagen efter inköp av "världens största batteri". Visst, han kan ljuga som politiker gör. Annars var det inte något speciellt vetenskapligt fenomen han redogjorde för så då litar jag på hans kännedom om den lokala energiproduktionen där han bor. Har alltså ingen speciell anledning att vara mer källkritisk i detta fall. Så fungerar jag.

Men OK, han är dock politiker så man vet aldrig.
Citera

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