Vi går in på upploppet när det gäller OU inför valet så jag tänkte dela några slutord från Nate Silver (Silver Bulletin) och 538.
- Nate Silver konstaterar att ”herding” är ett statistiskt faktum, dvs spridningen mellan olika OU är orimligt liten. De har alltså kollat av varandra för att inte stå ensamma som ”outlier” på omsdag morgon:
Citat:
It’s obviously a really close race. But for some pollsters, it’s a little too close.
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All told, we’d expect 55 percent of the polls to show a result within 2.5 points in a tied race. Instead, almost 80 percent of them did. How unlikely is that?
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Based on a binomial distribution — which assumes that all polls are independent of one another, which theoretically they should be — it’s realllllllllllllly unlikely. Specifically, the odds are 1 in 9.5 trillion against at least this many polls showing such a close margin.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/theres-more-herding-in-swing-state
- Nate Silver’s modell baserad på viktade OU är så nära 50/50 man kan komma:
Citat:
When I say the odds in this year’s presidential race are about as close as you can possibly get to 50/50, I’m not exaggerating.
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And after 80,000 simulations, Kamala Harris won the Electoral College in … 40,012 of them, or 50.015 percent. The remaining 39,988 were split between Trump (39,718) and no majority — a 269-269 tie — which practically speaking would probably be resolved for Trump in the U.S. House.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/a-random-number-generator-determined
- Iowa-pollen från Ann Selzer bryter ”herding”-mönstret
Citat:
Selzer — like NYT/Siena — has a long history of bucking the conventional wisdom and being right
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In September, her [Iowa] survey had Kamala Harris just 4 points behind Trump — considered an outlier at the time.
Her new poll? It shows the state trending even bluer, with Harris leading in Iowa 47-44. 🤯
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Releasing this poll took an incredible amount of guts because — let me state this as carefully as I can — if you had to play the odds, this time Selzer will probably be wrong.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/a-shocking-iowa-poll-means-somebody
- 538 lyfter fram den senaste närmast ”rena” Iowa-pollen från Ann Selzer och möjligheten att Harris är underskattad (dvs Trump överkompenserad):
https://abcnews.go.com/538/video/biggest-takeaway-latest-iowa-poll-538-politics-podcast-115489032
- 538’s modell ger också 50/50 chans:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/?cid=rrpromo
