Harris vs. Trump: opinionsundersökningar

October 17. The Electoral College race remains as close to 50/50 as it gets. But with some good polls for Trump entering our database today, like a 2-point lead in a high-quality national poll and a big lead in Georgia (though he trails in North Carolina in the same Quinnipiac poll), if you squint at the probabilities, you’ll see Trump 50.2%, Harris 49.5%. (There’s an 0.3% chance of a 269-269 tie).

That’s not much different from yesterday’s forecast of Harris 50.3%, Trump 49.4%. But however nominal, it’s Trump’s first lead in our model since Sept. 19.