Putin beordrar styrkor att gå in i Ukraina - INVASION NU (2022-02-24)

In early February, I published a detailed forecast estimating the number of troops the Russians would have to deploy to successfully occupy part of Ukraine. In my notional scenario, I assumed the Russians would only advance as far as Kharkiv and the lower Dnieper river. Using military troop-to-task analysis, I estimated Russia would have to deploy 83,000 troops to secure that part of Ukraine and keep another 83,000 in constant rotation for a total of about 160,000 troops. That is just under half of the entire Russian army (the Russian Ground Force). In this article, I update the occupation troop-to-task assessment, accounting for President Putin's more ambitious invasion through Kyiv in the north and Odessa in the south.