Presidentvalet 2020

Over the course of the campaign, there had been heated debates about the war and about national security, but suddenly there was just one story and just one issue: the economy.

When Lehman Brothers failed, a week after the government takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the Republican candidate's first reaction was an effort to reassure the public.

"The fundamentals of our economy are strong, but these are very, very difficult times," he said while campaigning in the important battleground state of Florida.

Obama, on the trail in Colorado, pounced on that remark, seeing a chance to tie his opponent to Bush's economic policies.

"This is what happens when you see seven years of incomes falling for the average worker while Wall Street is booming and declare, as Sen. McCain did earlier this year, that we've made great economic progress under George Bush," Obama said at the time.

Looking back, this was the decisive moment in the fall campaign. But David Axelrod, a senior adviser to the president and a top Obama campaign strategist, says the outcome wasn't so clear at the time.

"I think it became a great test of leadership at the moment, and I think it redounded to his benefit," he says.

On Election Day, Obama won handily, with polls showing that the economy was a major issue for voters.

Now, facing the prospect of taking office in the midst of crises even more daunting than those that confronted Obama in 2009, my guess is that Biden will be seeking a partner who can similarly help him not only win an election but govern in what promises to be a whirlwind.

The Black community was essential to Biden's nomination. Black voters represent almost a quarter of the Democratic base in a country that is growing more diverse by the day. Motivating turnout among voters of color, which was less than robust in 2016, will be important to Biden's chances on November...Naming a Black woman as his running mate would be a powerful signal of change (for electoral purposes, you mostly want a candidate who is a competent campaigner and debater, someone who will not fumble the ball and create unhelpful issues).

Biden over-performed with older voters but did poorly with the young during the primary season. He needs a stronger youth turnout than Hillary Clinton drew in 2016. The presence of a woman of color on the ticket might help, but many young activists also hunger for a vice presidential candidate on the left to offer ideological balance to Biden's perceived moderation.

The theory is believed by some to be a strategy used by U.S. President Donald Trump in dealing with both allied and hostile nations. Jonathan Stevenson argues Trump's strategy may be even less effective than Nixon's because Nixon tried to give the impression that "he'd been pushed too far, implying that he would return to his senses if the Soviets and North Vietnamese gave in." Whereas the North Korean government is unlikely to believe that "Trump would do the same" because his threats are "standard operating procedure", not a temporary emotional reaction.