Dödligt virus från Kina orsakar panik (SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19)

We estimate large changes in 𝑅𝑡 in response to the combined non-pharmaceutical interventions. Our results, which are driven largely by countries with advanced epidemics and larger numbers of deaths (e.g. Italy, Spain), suggest that these interventions have together had a substantial impact on transmission, as measured by changes in the estimated reproduction number Rt. Across all countries we find current estimates of Rt to range from a posterior mean of 0.97 [0.14-2.14] for Norway to a posterior mean of 2.64 [1.40-4.18] for Sweden, with an average of 1.43 across the 11 country posterior means, a 64% reduction compared to the pre-intervention values. We note that these estimates are contingent on intervention impact being the same in different countries and at different times. In all countries but Sweden, under the same assumptions, we estimate that the current reproduction number includes 1 in the uncertainty range.