Konflikten i Syrien

Stop those endless wars!

Trump ger lite kontext till sitt beslut (video):

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump

The hardest thing I have to do as President...

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1182075837962690560?s=20

Nej, Trump syftade till WMDs i Irak. 2003. Under Bush.

Klart de får komma hem, tyvärr. I en rättsstat tar det som det bör tid att ändra lagar och regler. Därför hade det varit önskvärt om de blivit dömda där de gjort brott. Om de så endast tillhört terrorgrupperna borde de få ett skott i bakhuvudet.

Nackskott. Och jag hade med glädje sett på varje dag. Ungefär som Che ville bevittna slaktarnas död.

Varför tillät Ryssland detta? Är det i syriska regeringens intresse att Turkiet krossar kurdernas makt?

Putin har intresse att sälja vapen till mongolerna. Sina ortodoxa bröder och kurder skiter han i.

I Ryssland är många irriterande dock. Likaså när mongolerna fick ner ett ryskt plan för ett drygt år sen.

Hittade en analys av det aktuella läget från ett ryskt forum som har översatts till engelska. Trovärdigheten åsido så ger det en ganska intressant bild av läget. Inte direkt till kurdernas fördel:

Translation from the Russian Glav.su (Global Adventure) forums, Syrian thread, Old Cap(tain) I:

Recap of current situation:

So, what we have for the first two days of the Turkish operation "Fountain/Spring/Source of peace", East of the Euphrates:

1. The Turkish Armed Forces:
- performing strikes practically along the entire border East of the Euphrates. Objects - warehouses, barracks, training camps, administrative buildings, within a depth of 10-15 kms. inside Syrian territory, mainly by long-range artillery. Up to 50 kms. inside Syria operate Turkish UCAVs. Targets - warehouses, training grounds, transport infrastructure objects.

No strikes further inside Syria.

The air and artillery strikes are meticulously corrected and prepared by the mass use of UAVs.

MRLS used very sparsely, mainly for psychological effect, than on real targets (and they are very effective in this type of use).

By the end of the first day (Wednesday) and after more than 180 targets hit, the invasion by ground forces began. It must be noted - it began very carefully.

First, reccoinesance in force in the direction of Tel-Abyad (TA) and Ras-al-Ayn (RAA). The attacking formations encountered resistance, organized at the outskirts of the populated places, reconnoitered the defense system and points and retreated during the night (favourite Tiger tactic, the Turks finally learned something).
- in the morning of October 10th, after analysing the actual disposition of the Kurdish defenses, the Turks took the decision to perform two main strikes - in the direction of TA and Ayn-Issa - by doing this, they cut off the Kurdish formations operating in the Manbidj area from the other parts of the enclave.
The Kurds have two options - either retreat to the East or reconcile and appeal to the SAA for help and protection. Judging from recent history (Afrin), they will choose the third option, i.e. do nothing, typical SDF leadership modus operandi style.

RAA, Tel Farah (or to the East of it). This direction already threatens Hassaka, after the projected fall of Kamishli (which seems inevitable if the Turks persist).

The main strike directions are around 150 kms. apart from each other, which with the full air domination of TAAF excludes any possibilities of force maneuver for the Kurds.

The Turks do not enter the main towns, they take only the surrounding villages (THE SPEED OF TAKING VILLAGES DEPENDS ON HOW FAST THEY ARE VACATED BY THE LOCALS - THE TURKS NEED TERRITORY, NOT PEOPLE) and they also move to the main roads connecting TA and RAA with the south part of SDF territory. And the Turks may be expected not to sever those roads for now - it is to their benefit if as many Kurds as possible rush South to the Euphrates - the less problems with locals and future control of the area.

Taking of Kamishli vey possible in the near future after it is vacated by as many Kurds as possible.


2. The Kurds
The biggest loses in the Middle East (they must be relatives of the Ukrainians, no possible other explanation, no learning abilities).

They had control over that territory for 3 years, population about 3 million people, oil, weapons, sweet deals... No comparison to the "rebels" in Hama, Idlib or Aleppo.
Massive US support, Erdo mentioned 30 000 trucks with goodies...
NOTHING DONE FOR THOSE 3 YEARS (even Afrin looks like the Maginot line).

- mass deserions, the Assyrian units declared neutrality, the Arab units are running for the hills as fast as they can, after brutally cracking down on any dissent for 3 years, the Kurds have no local allies left.

- no mass inflow of volunteers to fight, the units are ready to fight for their village only or that nice oil rig making big bucks.

- the Kurds could not equip a first line of defence along the whole border (okay, it is 450 kms., but this is not an excuse), there is no second line at all. No minefields, no engineering obstacles, no reserve positions to fall back on. Basically, they counted on the US only. When you compare that to the anthills of Hama the Tigers recently liberated, there is nothing to stop the Turks.


3. I don't know what the end goal of the Turks is. If it is to take the 30 kms. zone, they can play cat and mouse with the Kurds, save the infrastructure, chase away the locals, save soldiers and equipment - beyond that I don't know.

4. Damascus/RF have a couple of weeks to raise the locals beyond the Euphrates and with the help of the local Arab tribes take the oilfields. It will be much harder after that".

---

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2019/10/syria-turkey-again-invades.html?cid=6a00d8341c640e53ef0240a48f508f200 c#comment-6a00d8341c640e53ef024 0a48f508f200c

Originalpostningen på ryska:

https://glav.su/forum/5/2237/messages/5411611/#message5411611

USA hade planer att splittra Syrien med att skapa en självständig stat för kurderna, som också låg i Israels intresse, vilket USA följer.
Syrien, Ryssland , Iran och Turkiet har mycket klart uttalat att Syrien skall vara enat och Assad har uttalat att varje kvadratmeter mark som tillhört Syrien skall tas tillbaka.
Kurderna trodde att med USA kan de tvinga till sig en kurdisk stat som var dömt att misslyckas på förhand.
Syrien skulle aldrig ha accepterat någon kurdisk stat på sitt territorium, och som kurderna har ingen rätt till.
Turkiet skulle aldrig ha accepterat någon kurdisk stat i Syrien, som de mycket klart uttalat.
Kurderna som lever och bor i Syrien borde gått in med den syriska militären och stridit mot terroristerna, som de inte gjorde, nu kan de ses som förrädare, som trodde de skulle kunna skapa en kurdisk stat med USA bakom sig, som var dömt att misslyckas.
Innan kurderna gick in med USA var det förhandlingar om en federation för kurderna, men som nu kurderna agerat, kan den planen vara skrinlagd
Kurderna kan aldrig få någon egen stat på andra länders territorium, som de måste acceptera.

Verkar som att kurderna trodde att dom kunda utnyttja SAA.

Yesterday, SAA mobilized troops to enter and take over an area after the so-called "SDF" asked the Syrian Military to enter one of the areas under their control for protection, where the "SDF" will transfer control of this location to the Syrian Government and will integrate volunteers of their local forces with the Syrian National Defense, and surrender their heavy weaponry in that region to SAA.

After the Syrian command had agreed, the so-called "SDF" changed what they initially agreed on and demanded that SAA only enter the surroundings/borders of that region to protect them from a Turkish invasion.

As a result, the Syrian command halted SAA's movement. The Syrian Arab Army enters based on the Syrian commands conditions.

This is mainly an example of how the so-called "SDF" is acting toward the Syrian government. They want protection but they are still convinced in the delusion of annexing parts of Syria to establish their so-called state.

Furthermore, the Syrian command still considers the Turkish actions as act of invasion and act of war against Syria, and will deal with it on its own terms not on the terms of those who sold their land and their honor the U.S.

https://www.facebook.com/syrianmilitary/

Ett försvagat SDF är såklart ett plus för Assad, men sedan kommer det med problematiken att ha Turkiet och dess rebeller kontrollerandes syrisk mark. Sedan får man väga att om Turkiet ”fått” klartecken här att de kanske stryper sin hjälp till Idlib etc.

Många avvägningar som behöver göras

Presidenten sa igar om Syrien:

....We have one of three choices: Send in thousands of troops and win Militarily, hit Turkey very hard Financially and with Sanctions, or mediate a deal between Turkey and the Kurds!

Presidenten sa till pressen innan turen till Minneapolis:

“Of the three, I hope it’s going to be the last one.”

Undra hur en sadan deal kommer att se ut?

Inget av länderna med kurder inom landets gränser vill se ett självständigt Kurdistan någonstans.
Iran, Irak, Turkiet och Syrien är eniga om detta. Skälen är historiska.

Det enda land i regionen som förespråkar ett fritt Kurdistan är Israel och det är inte för Kurdernas bästa utan enkom för att det ligger i Israels intresse att splittra de länder som Israel uppfattar som ett hot.

Israel, USA och hela västvärlden anammade den "Syriska våren" men gagnade den "Syriska våren" väst intressen? Tveklöst nej.
Resultatet ser vi nu hur dessa länder vänder sig från Europa och västvärlden, ryssarna ökar sitt inflytande och USA drar sig ur området.

Det är dags att syna orsakssambandet till konflikten i Syrien för att undvika att EU och väst hamnar i samma situation igen på grund av "särintressen".