Konflikten i Syrien

Lång tråd om läget i Syrien. Ett ryskt perspektiv:


Thread on the new, fresh out of the oven charges being brought to Russia by social media “experts” in relation to Israel, Iran, and Syria.

1. In the past I wrote two other threads about how, apparently, Russia has “betrayed” Syria and/or Iran.
2. The first thread covered the topic of Russia's “betrayal” in general, and the second thread focused on the Iran-Israel affair and the early internet rumours about what will happen in South Syria.

https://twitter.com/O_Rich_/status/995643710309392384
https://twitter.com/O_Rich_/status/1001397527890026498

3. With that refresher out the way, lets proceed with what can be called "Part 3" of this series. I want to firstly say that all the hysterics from 2 months ago about Russia “not participating” in the South Syria operations now look very, very silly.
4. What is happening right now in Daraa, for example, was completely predictable. The “FSA” "moderate rebels" and the Nusra core are absolutely spent forces that offer their master countries absolutely nothing besides stalling inevitable geopolitical processes for a week or so.
5. The truth is that, as @EHSANI22 justly repeats over and over, the Syrian war ended when Russian jets touched down at Hmeymim. Russia would be working within the framework of International Law, and the speed of the liberation of land would be exponential.
@EHSANI22 6. Neither America, nor Qatar, nor Turkey, nor Saud, nor the EU, nor Israel have possessed anything that can counter this critical fact. Russia could deploy what it wants in Syria and when it wants to do it. Of course, there is a strategy involved, and every tool has its moment.
@EHSANI22 7. For example, the time when a nuclear warhead could be deployed never arrived (and the MoD knew it never would), and placing the S-400 in Latakia before 24th November, 2015 was simply not possible, because key pieces of the jigsaw were still missing.
@EHSANI22 8. Another key point to mention early on is that it was Iran who engaged with Moscow the most to speak about the latter's involvement in Syria. So when the “experts” say that “Russia betrayed Iran”, they are actually criticising Iran, since they contacted Russia for help.
@EHSANI22 9. So to summarise these 2 early points: ALL parties - Russia, Syria, Iran, Hezbollah - knew what the state of affairs was in 2015 & had a very good idea of what Russian involvement would bring to the table. They knew it was the checkmate move, hence why the invitation was sent.
@EHSANI22 10. So, now let’s move onto these charges now being thrown at Russia - at a time when the operations in South Syria are essentially over and all parties are thinking about the next 20 years.

The first charge:

“Russia demanded that Hezbollah/Iran leave Syria"
11. Here is a link from TASS (Russian state media) about what Putin said:

http://tass.com/politics/1004962

The first point: notice the words "the political process”. The “experts” for some reason completely overlooked these 3 words. And it is a grave error.
12. I.e., the vast majority of the jihadist forces on the ground have been decimated, and the ones that remain are sat in Idlib. So the so-called “opposition” has nothing more to discuss. They didn’t want to reach a compromise early in the war, and they lost in actual combat.
13. So the logical next step is to return back to the political processes again. It is simply a fact that one day the “opposition” has to play ball and have direct dialogue with Assad about a political settlement. Not even the best chess players can invent pieces from thin air.
14. For reasons unbeknownst to me, the social media “experts” think that war is like a slot machine, and the more you criticise one of the involved parties, the more the action (entertainment) continues. This is beyond cynical and is as destructive as Jihadist VBIED attacks.
15. Secondly, why did Syria invite Iran in the first place? Ah, because the capital city - Damascus - was under the threat of being captured by the west’s proxies. So, logically speaking, if Damascus isn’t under threat/fully liberated, then Iran’s aims/objectives change.
16. Social media “experts” seemingly imagine a scenario where Syria and Iran are not separate countries that are both subject to international law and the interests of other countries. They actually think that 1 idle Iranian soldier leaving Syria can be called a “betrayal”.
17. Why would Iran/Hezbollah leave troops inside Syria when there are no more jihadists to fight? Sure, they can be moved around to tackle the remaining pockets, but the total amount of these troops should be reduced and should correspond to the principals of “economy of force”.
18. "Answering reporters’ questions on which countries were meant and whether Iran was among them, the Kremlin spokesman recalled that some countries kept their soldiers and officers on Syrian soil 'in a de facto illegitimate regime from the perspective of international law’."
19. Reading the quote above from the TASS article can give anyone a good insight into 4th generation warfare. The Kremlin's statement simply reiterated international law. It can be understood as: “your version of ‘international law’ has lost; ours is now in control here’.
20. But the social media “experts” seemingly think that Russia is scheming with Israel behind the curtain & wants to remove Iran from the picture (maybe even from Eurasia as a whole?!) in order to build Greater Israel. Again, I reiterate: this baseless thesis is delirium.
21. The truth: Russia and Iran saw eye to eye (reported by @ejmalrai) concerning the ops in South Syria. We are now on July 3rd, and now it is game over for Israel in Syria. Tel Aviv is afraid of losing the Golan, and Syria has leverage, so it’s better to cut one’s losses.
22. Btw, I want to say something that is off-topic: the recent massacre of Palestinians committed by the IDF stained Israel’s reputation in the West so much so that it caused Tel Aviv more damage than any downed F-35 could ever do. I.e., Israel's position is now much weaker.
23. The next charge:

“Russia spoke with Avigdor Lieberman”.

Wow! What a crime! Russia called the Defense Minister of Israel as a part of the process to settle the Syrian war. The war can be settled simply by ignoring the existence of Israel and its interests? I don’t think so.
24. In fact, I already covered this "critique” in the past. It would appear that for some social media “experts”, absolutely any dialogue between a Russian and Israeli official is a crime. Putin supports Zionism, and is to blame for killed Palestinians? Keep the comedy coming...
25. Apparently, the whole world is now against Iran. Russia, America, and Israel are all bullying the Islamic Republic. And this isn’t a surprise, after all - the evil “Jewish Bolsheviks” "sponsored by the West” - never left power, right? Putin and Stalin are flesh from flesh.
26. In the minds of the “expert”, the only thing that would negate this charge is if Russia… say… nuked Israel. Yes. A nuke. Maybe even Tsar Bomba. This will save the Middle East and we will all live happily ever after. And until Putin does this, we all have to suffer
27. In fact, this charge has a sub-charge:

“America and its proxies failed to overthrow Assad, but Russia saved the day by demanding that Hezbollah and Iran leaves Syria”.

Confused? Well, it’s simple: apparently, Russia is working against Syria too, but Syria still exists...
28. Russia literally put the existence of the Russian nation on the line and entered a very high stakes arena, banking on the accuracy of the MoD’s algorithm. And guess what? Just like the USSR did in 1941 vs Hitler’s Germany, the Russian people defeated the collective West.
29. Here is another sample of the goods from the oven:

“Damascus is now in a bad position because Russia betrayed Iran and thus can’t rely on Russia’s long-term help”

Either I am living in a parallel universe, or this charge was picked from the nose.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1014078313575444480.html

Fortsättning på tråd:

30. What is happening right now is very similar to what happened 100 years ago vis-a-vis Sykes Picot. Back then, how the global order of the next century was going to be was set in stone by the division of the Middle East (resources) into mandated territories.
31. This order has more or less remained intact UNTIL the Syrian war started and Russia arrived. Now the “french mandate” or “Italian mandate”, or “British/US mandate” means diddly squat. In fact, today Italy sure regrets bombing Libya and would happily go back in time.
32. I think the main problem here is that there is a lack of understanding about the future. There is Brexit, JCPOA, talk of a “EU army”, potential Korean unification, the collapse of Ukraine, etc. Making sense of all these parallel processes is a very long and arduous task.
33. And as I have mentioned in the past, the very nature of social media (ADHD culture) and the Internet in general inclines users to truncate time and space to the extent that it is believed that “WW3” can be launched on Twitter on a single person's timeline.
34. Actually, “WW3” (a tabloid trashy term) already happened. It is quicker to name the countries that WEREN’T involved in Syria than the ones that were. The battle for the next 50 years of global order took place. It ended on 09.30.15 when Russia entered Syria.
35. And even at this moment it was known that Iran doesn’t need to deploy its regular army in Syria to counter Israel. This is why America continues to deploy the color revolution mechanism inside Iran in order to try there what they try in Russia with Navalny & co.
36. Israel knows very well that Iran can change the status of its existence to "404". But in today’s world unilateral action and two-sided standoffs don’t exist. The consequences of globalism and tech improvements mean that combat operations are only a way of securing assets.
37. Thus, knowing very well that America/Tel Aviv is trying to subvert Iranian society via toxic NGOs, Tehran isn’t going to give Israel what it wants and leave it’s rear wide open to attack. This scenario exists in all the main “poles” of the emerging “multi-polar” world.
38. In Turkey the West has injected its own pocket politicians that use liberal slogans and try to steer Ankara away from the East; in China America is using the “sonic attacks” + economic subversion + Korea card to try to anchor down the Chinese caravan;
39. In Russia, America tries to disrupt the equilibrium in society between liberals, monarchists, communists, anarchists, banderists, "patriots”, laypeople, and just naive youth. How is Russia countering this? By ensuring that Russian agriculture is as good as it can be.
40. How does Turkey counter the west's color revolution attempts? By using the situation in Iraq, Idlib, S-400 deal, Turkish Stream, the presence of a large Palestinian population in Jordan, etc as leverage. Iran: by banning the English language, pushing back takfirism, etc.
41. How does China fight off the West’s subversion? By keeping Venezuela afloat, by attacking the West in the UNSC via vetoes, by flirting with the EU & making it clear that the dollar is almost done, etc. And, of course, all the countries I just mentioned are involved in Yemen.
42. Summary: America has switched to a strategy of attacking its opponents from the inside via NGOs. And this is now the most actual battlefield. Saying that Iran should entrench itself in Syria and that Russia impedes this process is the same as saying “jump off a cliff”.
43. And finally: right now the US and Russia are trying to reach an agreement about how to deescalate in Ukraine and how to ensure both countries’ interests in Syria. Both cases will involve a compromise, and both cases will result in a division into spheres of influence.
44. This doesn’t mean a territorial division, but an agreement (which won’t necessarily be documented) based on how the US and Russia can co-exist taking into account the US’ subversion and Russia’s new and improved leverage. The equilibrium will be reset to pre-arab spring.
45. And RE Israel: time is ticking for Netanyahu & co. The Palestinian people will receive justice, although it won’t mean the deletion of Israel. Emotionally speaking, the 2-State solution is an injustice; logically/pragmatically/realistically speaking - it is the only way out.
46. Bonus - here is some good news:

"Indian media reported earlier that the country’s defense ministry expects an approval from the Governmental Committee on Security to buy five S-400 complexes from Russia for a total of around $5.5 bln”

http://tass.com/world/1011583

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1014078313575444480.html

Några punkter ryssarna och rebellerna kommit överens om i södra Syrien.
Hoppas detta går i lås och blodutgjutelsen stoppas.


• Immediate halt of all combat actions in the south by both sides

• The Syrian Army forces shall not take over the rebel-held areas, all SAA forces shall withdraw to their positions prior to the last military campaign,



• Gradually handing over all heavy weapons, in tandem with the return of civilians to their towns and villages,

• Civic government institutions shall be operational again under the management of the locals where all employees return to their work with raising the Syrian national flag,

• Opening up all roads linking Daraa to Damascus and Suwayda for civilian and economic purposes,

• Forming a central force armed with medium weapons to support the local force, as well as maintain security in each area,

• The central force shall take over Nassib crossing border and is responsible for providing whatever it takes to secure the road from Nassib to Kherbet Ghazaleh town,

• Nassib crossing border shall be run by civil employees under the protection of Russian Military Police, whereby the ‘military road’ linking Nassib to Suwayda shall be under the Syrian Army control,

• Implementing terms agreed on in Astana regarding the release of detainees and kidnapped, the exchange of bodies between the two warring parties, settling the status of defected soldiers in a way that guarantee their safety,

• The settlements points shall be geographically distributed as needed under an agreed-on mechanism,

• The agreement shall act as a roadmap for the status quo until a country-level solution is reached,

• Russia acts as the guarantor of this agreement.

Ser ut som att fronten aktiverats idag , tvivlar att någon uppgörelse kommer kunna nås innan rebellerna blir mer trängda

https://mobile.twitter.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/1014560559163994113

S. #Syria: intense airstrikes on #Tafas & #Saida, but #Daraa, Naimah & Yadoudah also heavily bombed. Battle ongoing on 3 fronts (Tafas, Daraa & Saida-Jizah axis).

https://mobile.twitter.com/LunaticRizgar/status/1014551054858498048

Undrar hur väl detta stämmer , om korrekt så kan inte sdf fått en bättre deal nästan.

Vet man än hur väst kommer agera?

Video med undertexter från södra Syrien hur "rebellerna" nu ger upp och kräver att regeringsstyrkorna skyddar deras familjer från andra al-Qaida-terrorister. Från 8:39 får vi se överlämnade vapenlager med bl.a. TOW:s från USA:

Militants run towards the Jordanian border | July 1st 2018 | Daraa, Syria

https://youtu.be/gVoAkRKS5ms

Ingen vapenvila, fanga varenda terrorist o lat bilan falla.

Fredspris till Putin, han ar mannen med stake

Så USA drar sig ifrån Syrien. Trump kastar inte ord i luften. Okej men då kan vi konstatera att Ryssland vann. Putin ska ha alla spoils of war åt sig själv.

Reuters skriver att enligt organisationen Syrian Observatory for Human Rights så ska den syriska militären och dess allierade Ryssland, ha utfört mer än 600 flygattacker de senaste 15 timmarna mot rebellkontrollerade städer i sydvästra Syrien.

Bombningarna, vilka hade minskat de senaste fyra dagarna, ska ha startats efter det att fredssamtal mellan rebellgrupper och ryska officerare hade kollapsat.

Den syriska presidenten Bashar al-Assad och hans allierade strider för att återta sydvästra Syrien, en av de sista återstående rebellkontrollerade områdena i Syrien, tillsammans med en region i nordväst vid gränsen mot Turkiet.

Assad har genomfört en två veckor lång offensiv, som har understötts av ryska stridsflygplan, och har tagit en stor del av rebellkontrollerade områden nordöst om provinshuvudstaden Deraa, och har lett till att flera städer har kapitulerat.

Områden ligger i en s.k "de-eskaleringszon," vilken är den del av en överenskommelse från förra året mellan Ryssland, Jordanien och USA för att minska på våldsamheterna.

Man skriver att Washington i början av den syriska regeringens offensiv sagt att man skulle svara på överträdelser vad gäller överenskommelsen, men att man ännu så länge inte gjort det. Rebeller ska ha sagt att de inte förväntade sig någon militär assistans från USA.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria/russian-backed-attack-pummels-southwest-syria-war-monitor-idUSKBN1JV0JE

När jag översatte artikeln så var det en "två" minuters artikel, d.v.s. den tar två minuter att läsa. När jag klickade på länken så har artikeln plötsligt blivit en "fem" minuters artikel, d.v.s. den tar fem minuter att läsa. Alltså har de lagt till en massa information. En nackdel dock, som jag även sett i andra artiklar från framför allt Reuters, är att de även tar bort information. Nu ser jag att sista stycket i mitt inlägg, det om att Washington sagt att man tänkte bistå rebellerna inte längre finns kvar. Jag får kolla upp det där senare.

Som jag förstått det är avtalet aldrig riktigt genomfört på rebellsidan vilket alla for sota för nu. Hade de separerat sig från allsköns dyngjihadism hade det funnits en möjlighet till bra villkor vid en fred med Syrien. Nu brakar allt bara ihop för dem.

Syrian Observatory for Humans Rights är typ en snubbe i UK som Västerländsk media använder sig flitigt utav, och han har en bias mot SAA/Syriska Govt (Detta kanske du vet, isf ursäkta, menar inte låta dryg och förklara nått du verkar ha koll på)

Bombningar sker naturligtvis eftersom de är krig, men västerländsk propaganda gör ofta gällande att Assad/Putin bombar civila, sjukhus for teh lulz, och i Aleppo Offensiven så dödade de tom. stadens sista clown, som alla barnen tyckte så bra om, krigspropaganda har nog aldrig vart så absurd! https://edition.cnn.com/2016/12/02/middleeast/aleppo-clown-syria-strike/index.html

För ditt inlägg stämmer ju och är dessutom från Reuters, så lite koll måste du ju ha.
Operation Daraa började 20 juni om jag minns rätt, och har gått förvånansvärt effektivt, nästan så SAA inte har hunnit gå in i en stad innan rebellerna övergett den.

Idag kan vi läsa att Israel accepterat Rysslands krav, och slaget om Södra Syrien nu kommer till ett slut.
https://ejmagnier.com/2018/07/04/the-battle-in-the-south-of-syria-is-coming-to-an-end-israel-bowed-to-russias-will/

Goda Nyheter, naturligtvis!
(Sätter resten av ditt inlägg och korrekta analys inom spoiler här)