Supertisdagen den 1 mars: Primärval för Republikanerna och Demokraterna

Trump had an excellent night on Tuesday. He won seven of the ten states that have been called so far.
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And, perhaps most importantly of all for Trump, it appears that his opposition will remain divided. Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, and John Kasich all got pretexts they can use to justify remaining in the race

First, Ted Cruz's wins in Texas and Oklahoma mean he isn't being driven out of the race as many Rubio allies hoped. He'll stay in, and for good reason — once all the delegates are allotted, his big Texas all ensures he'll be second in delegates overall (far ahead of Rubio).

But Cruz's triumph is also great news for Trump — because the Texas senator doesn't seem to have a path forward. Yes, he's second in wins and delegates right now, but that's mainly a function of his home state and the calendar. Indeed, the South was supposed to be Cruz's strongest region, and yet Trump has won 6 of the 8 Southern states that have voted so far.

Second, Rubio had a disappointing night. Yes, he did finally win a state in Minnesota. But he had little else he could brag about. Delegate allocation rules favoring the top two finishers in the big Southern states where Rubio finished in third — Texas, Alabama, and Tennessee — could put him well behind Cruz and hugely behind Trump in delegates.

So Rubio is weakened going into the contest that truly means life or death for his campaign — Florida, on March 15. It's no accident that Trump held his Super Tuesday victory press conference in Florida and mentioned his hopes to beat Rubio in the latter's home state several times. Trump is up 20 points in the RealClearPolitics polling average for Florida, and the state is winner-take-all, making it an enormously consequential delegate prize. If Cruz and Kasich stay in the race, as now appears likely, that could make it even easier for Trump to win the state with a mere plurality. And that would be the end of Marco Rubio.

Third, there's John Kasich, who appears to be doing Trump an enormous favor by remaining in the race. Kasich will pick up hardly any Super Tuesday delegates, but he seems to have effectively tied Trump in Vermont and tied Rubio for second in Massachusetts, which gives his campaign at least something to point to to justify staying in the race.

Yet Kasich, too, seems to have no path forward, since he performs so poorly outside deep blue states. So if he is in fact pulling more votes from Rubio than Trump, and he's still in the race on March 15, he makes it easier for Trump to win not only Florida but also Kasich's own state of Ohio (where Trump has also led the one recent poll) with just pluralities.

But nothing in Super Tuesday's results implies that any fundamental change is around the corner. No, the KKK flap didn't cause Trump's support to collapse. No, the results didn't reveal any new nationwide rallying around Rubio as the leading anti-Trump contender. No, the outcomes won't drive Cruz, Rubio, or Kasich out of the race.

Instead, these results looked quite a lot like we've already seen — Trump winning many victories with percentages in the thirties to forties, and his opposition divided and looking likely to remain so.