Citat:
Ursprungligen postat av
Bassiehof
Svärmor. Nej, jag kallar de inte rebeller utan opposition för att alla parter faktiskt någon gång i framtiden måste komma överens, oavsett utgång.
Cameron säger att det finns 70 000...freedom fighters i Syrien, men hur kompetenta de är låter jag vara osagt. Det finns redan ryska och iranska trupper i Syrien som jag fattat det, och Hizbollah finns också med på ett hörn. Skillnaden är att NATO inte riskerar soldaters liv om de inte skickar in marktrupper. Det är dyrt att kriga på det här sättet men det är en bättre lösning än att vi, som araber säger, "ockuperar" Syrien och sen är kvar där i decennier. Ryssland vill tydligen ha kvar sin bas där, därför deltar de i striderna.
De här 70.000 "moderata rebellerna" är odugliga att samarbeta med. De hatar väst, är inblandade i komplicerade klanstrider och samarbetar med terrorgrupperna, främst al-Nusra. Förses de med vapen, hamnar de ofta istället hos jihadisterna. Därtill sker det en radikalisering rent allmänt inom den sk oppositionen.
Patrick Cockburn i Independent har sammanfattat läget i en läsvärd artikel.
Citat:
Much of the debate around the feasibility of the British strategy has focused on Mr Cameron’s statement that we do indeed have a partner, of whose existence few were previously aware. He said that there are 70,000 “Syrian opposition fighters on the ground who do not belong to extremist groups”. The impression given is that there is a “third force” in Syria which will provide a powerful ally for the US, France and Britain.
This would be very convenient but, unfortunately, its existence is very debatable. “The notion that there are 70,000 moderate fighters is an attempt to show that you can fight Isis and [President Bashar al] Assad at the same time,” says Professor Joshua Landis, the director of the Centre for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma and an expert on Syrian politics. But he is dismissive of the idea that such a potential army exists, though he says there might be 70,000 Syrians with a gun who are fighting for their local clan, tribe, warlord or village. “The problem is that they hate the village down the road just as much they hate Isis and Assad,” he said.
The armed opposition to President Assad is dominated by Isis, the al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra and the ideologically similar Ahrar al-Sham. Some of the smaller groups, once estimated by the CIA to number 1,500, might be labelled as moderate, but only operate under license from the extreme jihadists. Aymenn al-Tamimi, a fellow at the Middle East Forum and an authority on the Syrian armed opposition, says that these groups commonly exaggerate their numbers, are very fragmented and have failed to unite, despite years of war.
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Even if such groups are not extreme Islamists, they do not have the strength to refuse to cooperate. This will make any ceasefire very difficult to arrange because such moderate fighters as there are who might be willing to accept a truce, are intermingled with powerful Nusra forces which will not do so.
Moreover, radical Islamic ideology has been gaining ground in all parts of the Syrian opposition.
Finns bara 3 kandidater till att stå som segrare i kriget. IS, al-Nusra eller Assad. De "moderata" rebellerna har ingen större betydelse.
Citat:
The US-led air campaign has already launched around 8,300 air strikes against Isis which have slowed up its advance, but without bringing it to its knees. Professor Landis says that the difficulty is that the three powers in Syria capable of winning the war are Isis, a Jabhat al-Nusra led alliance or Mr Assad but “the US doesn’t want any of these to win”. He cites three attempts by the US to create a moderate armed opposition which have humiliatingly failed and, on each occasion, extreme jihadists have captured quantities of modern American weapons.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/britain-is-on-the-verge-of-entering-into-a-long-war-in-syria-based-on-wishful-thinking-and-poor-a675 6476.html
Med mycket god marginal framstår Assad som det enda alternativet att samarbeta med. Vilket ryssarna insett.
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