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Ursprungligen postat av
aw
Jag skrev några veckor eftersläpning. Då argumenterade du emot mig, fast det var korrekt.
Om Nederländerna publicerar att 3% hade antikroppar i sampling för 2-4 veckor sedan, och dessutom eftersläpning för antikroppar är 2-4 veckor, då är det minst 4 veckor sedan Nederländerna hade 3% smittade. Det är snällast möjliga tolkning, och det var det jag skrev.
Except that the information isn’t necessarily four weeks old. Five days ago the paper was published drawing conclusions from the weekly submitted blood samples. Lets look at the maths for if they only calculated blood samples from a week prior.
12 days.
Considering the median time to onset is 5 days, we have 17 days.
But you also have to consider that actively sick people are not going to donate blood and that antibodies present themselves most often in the recovery period of the virus (meaning sometimes later, sometimes early). We can speculate how long it would take to present in an asymptomatic case, but my layman’s guess would be in less time than a symptomatic case. If it takes 11 days or longer on average, then your estimate of 4 weeks is correct — if not, then 4 weeks is wrong.
Worth noting is that the paper was released upon the same day they receive their weekly blood samples. Whether they’d be able to both test the samples and update their report the same day, I cannot speculate upon – but the possibility is there. That would make the information more recent, reflecting upon the situation in the beginning of April.
Finally, the majority of antibodies were found in the 18-20 age demographic with increasingly smaller amounts found the older the blood sample donor was. Whether this reflects on a trend in the Netherlands, to say that the virus is mostly concentrated amongst the youth there — or upon a trend amongst young blood donors, I don’t know. If it reflects on the population at large, then Holland should be commended for keeping their older demographics safe: but it is a warning of a rising CFR when/if it hits the older demographics.
