Den stora tråden om global uppvärmning/växthuseffekten

Om du inte trodde att det kunde bli torka i Sverige så är din kunskapsnivå mycket låg. Inte konstigt att du tror på tomtens prognoser.


https://sv.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Missv%C3%A4xt%C3%A5ren_1867%E2%80%931869

Western Drought Ranks among the Worst of the Last Millennium
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/western-drought-ranks-among-the-worst-of-the-last-millennium/

Om någon är obekant med scientific american: https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/scientific-american/

För den som är intresserad av att veta mer om forskning kring hur solen påverkar klimatet, läs här:
92 New Papers (2018) Link Solar Forcing To Climate . . . Some Predict Solar-Induced Global Cooling By 2030! http://notrickszone.com/2018/12/27/92-new-papers-link-solar-forcing-to-climate-some-predict-a-solar-induced-global-cooling-by-2030/

En omfattande och systematisk genomgång av extremväderhändelser och klimatförändring

Här är ett exempel på hur vissa händelser beskrivs.

"This is the second year that scientists have identified extreme weather events that they said could not have happened without warming of the climate through human-induced climate change."

https://www.ametsoc.org/ams/index.cfm/publications/bulletin-of-the-american-meteorological-society-bams/explaining-extreme-events-from-a-climate-perspective/

–

Sun and Climate

As our climate changes and warms from the norm, there has been a lot of speculation on whether the Sun and its cycles play a role in Earthly climate matters. Some climate change deniers claim that this solar maximum's low activity will lead to a cooling planet, thus offsetting man-made atmospheric carbon input. Is this plausible?

The science says no:

"As supplier of almost all the energy in Earth's climate, the sun has a strong influence on climate. A comparison of sun and climate over the past 1150 years found temperatures closely match solar activity (Usoskin 2005). However, after 1975, temperatures rose while solar activity showed little to no long-term trend. This led the study to conclude, "...during these last 30 years the solar total irradiance, solar UV irradiance and cosmic ray flux has not shown any significant secular trend, so that at least this most recent warming episode must have another source."

In fact, a number of independent measurements of solar activity indicate the sun has shown a slight cooling trend since 1960, over the same period that global temperatures have been warming. Over the last 35 years of global warming, sun and climate have been moving in opposite directions. An analysis of solar trends concluded that the sun has actually contributed a slight cooling influence in recent decades (Lockwood 2008)."

http://www.auroraborealispage.net/aurora/temperatures.jpg

http://www.auroraborealispage.net/solarmax.html

Ojojoj vad ni kämpar för att driva ert narrativ.

Dock garanterar Jevons ”paradox” och empiri från över 200 år av den industrialiserade civilisationen att fossila bränslen kommer fortsätta förbrännas i en rasande, därtill en ökande, takt fram till sotdöden för mänskligheten.

Låt det rulla över tungan:

William Stanley Jevons

Hur känns det?

Även BBC inser allvaret i klimatförändringarna, de skriver också om rapporten från Christian Aid. Nu ser vi effekterna av uppvärmningen och de börjar kosta enorma summor.

Ändå är detta ”bara” de stora händelserna. Samtidigt sker mindre drastiska förändringar i fattiga länder som påverkar miljoner människor, som att havet tar sig in över land och att boskapen inte hittar mat i allt torrare områden.

Climate change: Huge costs of warming impacts in 2018

Extreme weather events linked to climate change cost thousands of lives and caused huge damage throughout the world in 2018, say Christian Aid.

The charity's report identified ten events that cost more than $1bn each, with four costing more than $7bn each.
Scientists have shown that the chances of heat waves in Europe were influenced directly by human-related warming.
…
According to the report the most financially costly disasters linked to rising temperatures were Hurricanes Florence and Michael, with costs said to be around $17bn for the former, and $15bn for the latter.
Research published at the time showed that the rains accompanying Hurricane Florence were made 50% worse than they would have been without human influenced warming.
With Hurricane Michael, experts say that human activities drove the emissions that made the water warmer, adding fuel and speed to the storm.

In Japan, 2018 was the summer of extremes with flooding and heatwaves causing huge impacts. The floods killed at least 230 people and caused $7bn worth of damage, which were then followed by Typhoon Jebi, the most powerful storm to hit the country for 25 years.

Europe also saw record heatwaves - with researchers showing that climate change likely doubled the chances of the events happening.
A separate study from the Met Office looking at the UK suggested that the extreme heat was made 30 times more likely because of rising temperatures.
…
Commenting on the Christian Aid report, Dr Michael Mann from Penn State University said the impacts of climate change were no longer subtle.

"The unprecedented floods, droughts, heat waves, wildfires and super storms we've seen in recent years - they are the face of climate change. The world's weather is becoming more extreme before our eyes - the only thing that can stop this destructive trend from escalating is a rapid fall in carbon emissions."

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-46637102

1927 var ett av de värsta väderåren i USA:s historia:

Archive - Great Mississippi Flood of 1927

Provided by: NOAA
Summary authors & editors: Jim Foster

In the autumn of 1926, heavy rains plagued America's heartland. The precipitation didn't let up much during the winter, and by early spring, the soil was soaked from Minnesota to Mississippi. The rains persisted into April, setting the stage for one of the most devastating, widespread floods in the history of the US - 75 years ago this spring.

By mid-April of 1927, the "Big Muddy" had risen to unprecedented heights after violent spring storms poured even more water into the already swollen river. The flood waters of the Mississippi were one mile (1.6 km) wide, approximately 100 feet (32 m) deep and were moving downriver at about 9 miles (14 km) per hour - an impressive clip for a river having such a shallow slope. As the crest approached, tributaries to the Mississippi actually flowed backwards since the volume of water passing by on the big river was much higher than the water level of the rivers feeding into it.

It's said that people who live in flood-prone areas along the Mississippi River fear only God and the Mississippi. They had a right to be fearful in the spring of 1927. The Mississippi River flooded nearly the entire length of its course as levees busted apart in more than 100 places.The Big Muddy and its tributaries flooded more than 26,000 square miles (67,340 square km) in seven states, and in a few locations along its course, the Mississippi River became an 80 mile (128 km) wide inland sea. Nearly 700,000 people were evacuated or left homeless by floodwaters. Although 247 people were confirmed dead, the actual total of people who lost their lives in the flooding was over 1,000.

https://epod.usra.edu/blog/2016/04/archive-great-mississippi-flood-of-1927.html

• 16,570,627 acres in 7 states

• 41,487 buildings destroyed.
• $102,562,395 in crop losses.
• 162,017 homes flooded.

• 5,934 boats used in rescue work.
• 325,554 people cared for in 154 Red Cross camps
• Over 31,000 people volunteered in rescue services.
• 42 major levee crevasses in MS, AR, and LA
• 120 levee crevasses in all.

http://web.mst.edu/~rogersda/umrcourses/ge342/1927%20Mississippi%20River%20Flood.pdf

Men åter till topic som är klimatet och inte vädret.

Vad vill du säga med detta?

Tipping points har studerats och diskuterats länge. Kanske är de viktigare än man förut trott. Sambanden är i alla fall tydligare. T ex att avsmältningen i Arktis gör att mer värme absorberas av den isfria havsytan och därmed snabbar på temperaturökningen ytterligare. Vilket i sin tur ökar risken för skogsbränder I norr, som späder på koldioxiden ännu mer och värmer ännu mer, så att isen smälter ännu fortare.

Om korallreven dör påverkar det mangroveskogen som hindrar havet att ta över land.

Kanske är det redan för sent att hindra Arktis is att smälta och att stoppa koralldöden.

Risks of 'domino effect' of tipping points greater than thought, study says

Scientists warn policymakers not to ignore links, and stress that ‘every action counts’
Policymakers have severely underestimated the risks of ecological tipping points, according to a study that shows 45% of all potential environmental collapses are interrelated and could amplify one another.
The authors said their paper, published in the journal Science, highlights how overstressed and overlapping natural systems are combining to throw up a growing number of unwelcome surprises.
“The risks are greater than assumed because the interactions are more dynamic,” said Juan Rocha of the Stockholm Resilience Centre. “The important message is to recognise the wickedness of the problem that humanity faces.”

Among the latter pairings were Arctic ice sheets and boreal forests. When the former melt, there is less ice to reflect the sun’s heat so the temperature of the planet rises. This increases the risks of forest fires, which discharge carbon into the air that adds to the greenhouse effect, which melts more ice. Although geographically distant, each amplifies the other.
By contrast, a one-way domino-type impact is that between coral reefs and mangrove forests. When the former are destroyed, it weakens coastal defences and exposes mangroves to storms and ocean surges.
The deforestation of the Amazon is responsible for multiple “cascading effects” – weakening rain systems, forests becoming savannah, and reduced water supplies for cities like São Paulo and crops in the foothills of the Andes. This, in turn, increases the pressure for more land clearance.

Until recently, the study of tipping points was controversial, but it is increasingly accepted as an explanation for climate changes that are happening with more speed and ferocity than earlier computer models predicted. The loss of coral reefs and Arctic sea ice may already be past the point of no return. There are signs the Antarctic is heading the same way faster than thought.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/dec/20/risks-of-domino-effect-of-tipping-points-greater-than-thought-study-says

Hoppsan..
30 år innan klimatförändringar ens började.

Tror du att klimatforskarna har missat detta?