Protester i Syrien

It is not yet clear if the defectors have forged such a network, either from the Syrian diaspora or foreign powers.

“If they get help from Turkey or certain Arab countries it could take maybe 5, 6 or 8 months to win against the regime,” British-based opposition activist Samer Afndi told Reuters.

“If no help will come, it will take a longer time,” said Afndi, a former Syrian state security official.

He said morale among many in the opposition was boosted by a raid by army defectors on an air force intelligence complex in Harasta near Damascus on Wednesday that had killed or wounded 20 policemen.

“In truth, the armed insurgency is not strong enough to significantly threaten the regime at present,” Alan Fraser, Middle East analyst for risk consultancy AKE, told Reuters.

“However, with support from elsewhere, it may become more organised and capable of inflicting damage.”

“The turning point will come when it has the ability to control ground in the face of a regime counter-offensive.”

The exact strength of the dissident soldiers is not known and Syria’s ban on most foreign media makes it hard to verify events on the ground.

Colonel Riad Asaad of the Free Syrian Army told Reuters in Turkey last month that 10,000-15,000 soldiers, out of the roughly 200,000-strong military, had defected all over the country and that desertions were continuing every day.

“Along with implied Turkish support for armed opposition, this suggests that the Assad government will struggle to contain protests in major cities in the 3-6 month outlook and increases the risk of a civil war beyond that timeframe.”

A Syria expert at Exclusive Analysis who declined to be identified due to the sensitivity of the topic said he expected “a steady erosion of the power of the Syrian army and a steady limiting of the territory that it can access.”

“The way it’s heading is more towards full-scale civil war which draws in the intervention of regional actors.”

"---The line-up of the Syrian government's opponents should make it clear to anybody that there is more at stake here than Arab and international concern for human rights. The lead is being taken by Saudi Arabia – its repressive regime one of the few absolute monarchies left on the planet. In March, it sent 1,500 troops into Bahrain to crush protests very similar to those in Syria. Unstinting support was given by the Saudis to the Bahraini authorities as they tortured distinguished hospital consultants whose only crime was to treat injured protesters. Is it really conceivable that Saudi Arabia should be primarily motivated by humanitarian concerns?

A more convincing motive for international involvement is the decades-old but escalating struggle against Iran by the US, its Nato allies, Israel and the Sunni states of the Middle East. But the last few years have shown the limits of effective action against Iran, short of war, which, for all the bluster from Washington and Tel Aviv, they are wary of fighting. But Syria is a different matter. "If you can't beat Iran, the second best option is to break Syria," says the Iraqi political scientist Ghassan Attiyah, who points out the absurdity of Saudi Arabia presenting itself as a defender of human and democratic rights in the Middle East.---

The fall of the government in Syria will not be confined to one country, as happened in Libya. It will throw the whole Middle East into turmoil. Turkish leaders say privately they have been given a free hand by the US and Britain to do what they want. But the Saudis have no wish to see Turkey become the champions of the Muslim world. The battle for Syria is already producing fresh rivalries and the seeds of future conflicts.---"