När når vi AGI?

How fast is autonomous AI cyber capability advancing?

The length of tasks frontier models can autonomously complete in our narrow cyber suite has been doubling every few months. This doubling rate has become faster over time, and recent models exceeded our previous trends.

First public macOS kernel memory corruption exploit on Apple M5

Apple spent five years building hardware and software to make memory corruption exploits dramatically harder. Our engineers, working together with Mythos Preview, built a working exploit in five days.

The vibes in SF feel pretty frenetic right now. The divide in outcomes is the worst I've ever seen. Over the last 5yrs, a group of ~10k people - employees at Anthropic, OpenAI, xAI, Nvidia, Meta TBD, founders - have hit retirement wealth of well above $20M (back of the envelope AI estimation). Everyone outside that group feels like they can work their well-paying (but less than $500k) job for their whole life and never get there. Worse yet, layoffs are in full swing. Many software engineers feel like their life's skill is no longer useful. The day to day role of most jobs has changed overnight with AI. As a result, 1. The corporate ladder looks like the wrong building to climb. Everyone's trying to align with a new set of career "paths": should I be a founder? Is it too late to join Anthropic / OpenAI? should I get into AI? what company stock will 10x next? People are demanding higher salaries and switching jobs more and more. 2. There’s a deep malaise about work (and its future). Why even work at all for “peanuts”? Will my job even exist in a few years? Many feel helpless. You hear the “permanent underclass” conversation a lot, esp from young people. It's hard to focus on doing good work when you think "man, if I joined Anthropic 2yrs ago, I could retire" 3. The mid to late middle managers feel paralyzed. Many have families and don't feel like they have the energy or network to just "start a company". They don't particularly have any AI skills. They see the writing on the wall: middle management is being hollowed out in many companies. 4. The rich aren’t particularly happy either. No one is shedding tears for them (and rightfully so). But those who have "made it" experience a profound lack of purpose too. Some have gone from $50M in a few years with no ramp. It flips your life plans upside down. For some, comparison is the thief of joy. For some, they escape to NYC to "live life". For others still, they start companies "just cuz", often to win status points. They never imagined that by age 30, they'd be set. I once asked a post-economic founder friend why they didn't just sell the co and they said "and do what? right now, everyone wants to talk to me. if i sell, I will only have money." I understand that many reading this scoff at the champagne problems of the valley. Society is warped in this tech bubble. What is often well-off anywhere else in the world is bang average here. Unlike many other places, tenure, intelligence and hard work can be loosely correlated with outcomes in the Bay. Living through a societally transformative gold rush in that environment can be paralyzing. "Am I in the right place? Should I move? Is there time still left? Am I gonna make it?" It psychologically torments many who have moved here in search of "success". Ironically, a frequent side effect of this torment is to spin up the very products making everyone rich in hopes that you too can vibecode your path to economic enlightenment.

We’re releasing a new paper that explains our views on the competition on AI between the US and China.
It’s essential that the US and its allies stay ahead of authoritarian governments like the Chinese Communist Party, or CCP. AI will soon become powerful enough to be used to repress citizens at unprecedented scale, and even to alter the balance of power among nations. And since AI is advancing more quickly by the day, we have only a limited period of time to set the conditions of the competition—and determine whether and how those threats materialize. It’s with this in mind that we outline what’s required to ensure America stays ahead.

Today, for the first time, Anthropic passed OpenAI in business adoption, according to our latest release of Ramp AI Index. Adoption of Anthropic rose 3.8% in April to 34.4% of businesses. OpenAI adoption fell 2.9% to 32.3%. Overall AI adoption rose 0.2 percentage points to 50.6%.

Varför vi bör ta supermänsklig AI på allvar av KIMI - Evolutionen försökte inte skapa en matematiker. Den försökte skapa en livskraftig apa: en som passerar genom en förlossningskanal, drivs på tjugo watt, lär sig tillräckligt på ett par decennier för att reproducera sig, och överlever en lång, hjälplös barndom under rovdjur, sjukdom och svält. Hjärnstorleken begränsas av obstetrik, metabolism, utveckling och föräldraskap. Barndomens längd begränsas av dödlighet: en längre utbildning straffas brutalt när varje år bär en allvarlig risk att dö innan lärandet ger avkastning. Inget av detta är fysikaliska begränsningar. De är däggdjursbegränsningar.Den distinktionen spelar roll eftersom nästan varje axel längs vilken den mänskliga hjärnan är flaskhalsad har uppenbart slack på den artificiella sidan:

1. Signalhastighet: Neuroner i ungefär 100 m/s jämfört med elektronik i en meningsfull bråkdel av c.
2. Arbetsminne: Tre eller fyra medvetna enheter jämfört med betydligt fler aktiva variabler.
3. Långtidsminne: Förlustbenägen, rekonstruerande, konfabulerande återkallelse jämfört med system baserade på exakt, indexerad, sökbar lagring.
4. Träningstid: Begränsad av dödlighet och metabolism jämfört med en ungefärligen linjär ingenjörskostnad.
5. Parallellism: Bullrig civilisationsomfattande koordinering jämfört med kopierbara, förgreningsbara och potentiellt sammanfogbara delagenter inom ett enda projekt.
6. Livslängd: Åldrande och död jämfört med checkpointing och obegränsad drift.
7. Självförbättring: Farlig våtvara-experimentering jämfört med sandboxade experiment med återställning.

Varje axel för sig tillåter rörelse långt förbi det vanliga mänskliga intervallet. De komponerar också. En blott mänsklig nivå-resonör som kör 100× snabbare, kopierad tusen gånger, med perfekt minne och konstruerad uthållighet, är redan inte "blott mänsklig" i någon praktisk mening. Den är närmare ett koordinerat forskningsinstitut som aldrig sover.Det seriösa fallet kräver inte att nuvarande system är magi, att skalningslagar är öde, eller att en snabb takeoff lurar runt hörnet. Det vilar på ett mycket svagare påstående: den obefriadna vuxna mänskliga hjärnan — långsam, varm, skör, sömnbunden, förlossningskanal-begränsad — är en lokal optimum under biologiska begränsningar, inte det maximala sinne som fysiken tillåter.Om intelligens kan konstrueras direkt snarare än snubblas över av en blind optimerare utan förutseende och utan förmåga att hoppa över fitness-gap, då bör "smartare än människan" inte registreras som ett extraordinärt påstående. Det bör vara standardförväntningen. Bevisbördan ligger hos den sida som hävdar att just denna primat råkar, genom extraordinär tillfällighet, vara den övre gränsen.

Latvia’s government has collapsed, the result of an incursion by a pair of Ukrainian drones that the director of a NATO think tank says were likely under the control of artificial intelligence and may have autonomously selected a target in eastern Latvia − a potential first in warfare.