Harris vs. Trump: opinionsundersökningar

As regular readers may know by now, recall vote is a measure of how respondents say they voted in the last presidential election. Some pollsters weight their polls using recalled vote, essentially adjusting the number of Biden ’20 or Trump ’20 voters in their poll to match the outcome of that election.
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By recall vote, the Times/Inquirer/Siena poll in Pennsylvania is Biden +10, even though Mr. Biden actually won the state by just one point in 2020.
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Mr. Trump would lead the Pennsylvania poll if it were weighted on recall vote. And notably, the previously mentioned polls showing good results for Ms. Harris in Pennsylvania — the Quinnipiac poll, and the Muhlenberg and Susquehanna district polls — aren’t weighted on recall vote, either.

As I wrote last weekend, the recall vote measure has been extremely inaccurate in the past — so inaccurate that it would have made the polls less accurate in every election in recent memory. But a majority of pollsters are now using it anyway, and it’s entirely possible that it will make their polls look more like the final result in the end. After all, the apparent degree of error on recall vote varies greatly from election to election, and this election contains a variety of twists — namely, that the loser of the last election is running again (and doesn’t concede defeat) and the winner isn’t running again (and in a sense lost a rematch against the loser). Maybe, this time, it will do the trick.

How recent Times/Siena polls would have changed

National: Harris+4 —> Harris+4

Wisconsin: Harris+2 —> Trump+1

Michigan: Harris+1 —> Trump+1

Pennsylvania: Harris+4 —> Trump+2

Texas: Trump+6 — > Trump+3

Arizona: Trump+6 —> Trump+6

Georgia: Trump+4 —> Trump+6

North Carolina: Trump+3 —> Trump+6

Florida: Trump+13 —> Trump+7

If the final election results look like these recalled-vote-weighted estimates, it would be something of a nightmare for Democrats.

As I wrote last weekend, the recall vote measure has been extremely inaccurate in the past — so inaccurate that it would have made the polls less accurate in every election in recent memory.