Jag har tidigare påstått att konvojen som hotade Kiev förra året var en avledningsmanöver för att få AFU att flytta trupper dit som behövdes på andra håll, t ex Mariupol.
Nu måste jag revidera min åsikt med all fakta på bordet, tror dock plan B var någon form av avledande manöver.
https://t.me/ukraine_watch/4412?single
The demonstrated draft of the Istanbul Treaty was dated April 15, 2022. Earlier, the media reported that it had been initialed on March 29. That is, the date we see on the treaty is already after the withdrawal of the Russian army from Kiev and after Bucha.
The most interesting thing is that according to the information I received from Ukraine, everything happened exactly as the Russian media reported.
First an agreement was reached, with Russia largely going along with the Ukrainian proposals except for the main issues, Russia received the Ukrainian version of the treaty on March 29, then the withdrawal of troops from under Kiev took place, followed by a staged Bucha, Boris Johnson arrived in Kiev (April 7), and Ukraine withdrew from the treaty unilaterally.
And the withdrawal of troops from near Kiev was, as Peskov said, a goodwill gesture. I would add that it was a gesture of goodwill, but in accordance with the preliminary agreements. It is just that the final version was signed on April 15.
It also became known that the document is called "The Treaty on the Permanent Neutrality and Security Guarantees of Ukraine".
Ukraine's neutrality is mentioned in the first paragraph of the first article. The next paragraph says that the guarantor states recognize, respect and guarantee the status of Ukraine as a permanently neutral state, they are obliged to ensure compliance with this status.
The guarantor states in the preamble are Russia, the United States, France, Great Britain and China. Ukraine "undertakes not to carry out activities that would contradict the international legal status of permanent neutrality. The treaty was supposed to be signed by Russia, Ukraine, and all guarantor countries.
I have attached a table with figures on Ukraine's obligations to reduce the size of its armed forces.
- Oleg Tsaryov, an ex-politician from Ukraine.
