Nova Kahovka-dammen sprängd (2023-06-06)

The situation in Novaya Kakhovka after reports of the destruction of the dam of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station remains calm. This was reported to us by the head of the city administration Vladimir Leontiev.

“Everything is quiet and calm, there is nothing at all,” he said.

Earlier at night, reports began to circulate in the media about the APU blowing up the dam of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station on the Dnieper.

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In a catastrophic scenario, destroying the dam could send a highly destructive flood wave down the Dnipro River, causing severe flooding in large areas of southern Ukraine. Backswell would also likely flood the Inhulets River, a tributary of the Dnipro.

However, terrain levels mean the flooding would likely be worse on the Russian-held left bank of the Dnipro, making a detonation of explosives on the dam an unlikely move for Moscow.

"[Destroying the dam] would mean Russia essentially blowing its own foot off,” military analyst Michael Kofman said on the War on the Rocks podcast last month.

“[It] would flood the Russian-controlled part of Kherson [region]… much more than the western part that Ukrainians are likely to liberate."

And the secondary effects of blowing the dam could be just as severe for Russia.

Lowering the river level behind the dam threatens both water supplies to Moscow-annexed Crimea and risks cutting off access to cooling water for the Russian-controlled nuclear power plant in Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region.

“Blowing the dam would also provoke international outcry,” analyst Black told The Moscow Times. “While it may slow Ukrainian troops’ advance in the south in the short-term, it could serve to further stiffen Ukrainian resolve and will-to-fight against Russian occupation in the long run.”