Vad händer nu? Vad är nästa steg i operationen? Kommer Ukrainas offensiv igång nu?
Det har sagts att anledning till att Zelensky gav order om att hålla Bakhmut så länge som möjligt var för att få tid till att samla ihop en ny styrka till en offensiv. Kan vara så men jag personligen tror att för mycket har offrats för Bakhmut och att det inte precis har gynnat någon annan mobilisering. Vi har också de nästan bekräftade ryktena om att Prigozjin är allvarligt skadad eller rent av död. Något blir det dock tror jag och det finns naturligtvis att något skit dras igång från NATO-håll.
Här ur en lång artikel om framtiden för SMO:n. Ja, den är författad av en pro-rysk analytiker men han är både oerhört insatt och ofta kritisk mot ryska militära misstag. Han tar upp flera scenarier där Ukraina (läs USA/NATO) kan segra. Här är en sak som skulle kunna hända framöver:
Från Rybar's Twitter:
More info from Rybar about AFU’s seemingly finalized preparations:
Among the members of the Ukrainian formations, they talk about the imminent intensification of hostilities-from a couple of days to a week. In the 108th theroborona brigade, identification signs ("white cross" on the roof of vehicles) are being removed. At least 16 tactical aircraft, some of which are carriers of Storm Shadow cruise missiles, and six Mi-8 helicopters are based at the airfields in Dnepropetrovsk and Dolgintsevo.
In the south of the Dnipropetrovsk region, excluding TRO, forces of 116, 117, 118 ombr 10 AK, as well as 1 otbr, 71 ebr of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and 82 odshbr DSHV are concentrated in Oboyanovsky, Sinelnikovo, Vasilkovka, Chaplino, Pavlograd and Pokrovskoye.
Units of the 33rd and 47th mechanized brigades of the 9th Army Corps of Engineers arrived in Volnyansk in the Zaporizhia region. Formations of 128 ogshbr and 15 obr NSU, 65 ombr, 46 oaembr and three TRO brigades took up positions on the front line.
In addition, forces of the 44th separate mechanized brigade from Nizhyn were observed in the direction, and the transfer of 14 obr of the National Guard from Vinnytsia and 81 separate control battalions of the 9th army Corps from Kirovohrad region began.
Also, members of the Ukrainian formations report on the possible transfer of paratroopers of the 10 ogshbr from the Soledar direction to the area of the Vremyevsky salient.
And the 309th separate battalion of the 48th Engineering Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has also been moved to the Gulyai-Pole site, which can be armed with mobile bridge-laying machines of American and German production. (Rybar)
En annan rysk analytiker:
Voencor Kitten Z. What we have in the moment:
1. The enemy has concentrated a strike group of about 65 thousand troops in the Zaporozhye direction, which was chosen as one of the main ones during the planned offensive operations.
The forces of approximately two army corps and amphibious assault troops have been assembled.
2. The main units and formations of the group are located 80-100 km from the line of contact.
Combat readiness group. The enemy is waiting for an order.
3. Before attempting a breakthrough, a massive rocket and artillery strike is planned on positions, locations, KP, ppu, headquarters, warehouses, bases of the Russian Armed Forces and civilian objects both in the Zaporozhye, Kherson regions, LDNR, in the Crimea and Sevastopol, and on the "old" territories of the Russian Federation.
4. There may be an attempt to launch a diversionary strike in the direction of the Belgorod region of the Russian Federation.
5. In the Kherson direction, engineering works were noted for preparing the offensive with the crossing of the Dnieper — in a number of areas, mine clearance of approaches to the water barrier is being carried out.
Så vi får se hur mycket kraft och moralisk styrka det finns kvar i Kiev. Time will tell!
Lång, lång läsning av sagda författare om olika scenarier:
SITREP 5/20/23: Bakhmut Falls, Artemovsk Rises. What's Next?
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-52023-bakhmut-falls-artemovsk
r verkar det bli mot Rafale mirage .