Putin beordrar styrkor att gå in i Ukraina - INVASION NU (2022-02-24)

Extending Russia Summary of Findings (sida 274)
Measure

Economic:
-Hinder petroleum exports
-Reduce natural gas exports and hinder pipelines
-Impose sanctions
-Reduce Russian influence in Central Asia
-Enhance Russian brain drain

Geopolitical:
-Provide lethal aid to Ukraine
-Increase support to the Syrian rebels
-Promote regime change in Belarus
-Exploit tensions in the South Caucasus
-Reduce Russian influence in Central Asia
-Challenge Russian presence in Moldova

Ideological:
-Expose the corruption in the Russian electoral system
-Diminish the perception that the regime is pursuing the public interest
-Encourage protests and other nonviolent resistance
-Undermine Russia’s standing internationally

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Measure 1: Provide Lethal Aid to Ukraine

The United States could also become more vocal in its support for NATO membership for Ukraine. Some U.S. policymakers—including Republican Senator and 2016 presidential candidate Marco Rubio backed this approach in the past and Ukrainian President Poroshenko recently promised to hold a referendum on the issue in the near future. While NATO’s requirement for unanimity makes it unlikely that Ukraine could gain membership in the foreseeable future, Washington’s pushing this possibility could boost Ukrainian resolve while leading Russia to redouble its efforts to forestall such a development.
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Benefits:
Expanding U.S. assistance to Ukraine, including lethal military assistance, would likely increase the costs to Russia, in both blood and treasure, of holding the Donbass region. More Russian aid to the separatists and an additional Russian troop presence would likely be required, leading to larger expenditures, equipment losses, and Russian casualties. The latter could become quite controversial at home, as it did when the Soviets invaded Afghanistan.
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Risks:
An increase in U.S. security assistance to Ukraine would likely lead to a commensurate increase in both Russian aid to the separatists and Russian military forces in Ukraine, thus sustaining the conflict at a somewhat higher level of intensity. Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, the former commanding general of U.S. Army Europe, argued against giving Javelin anti-tank missiles to Ukraine for precisely this reason. Alternatively, Russia might counter-escalate, committing more troops and pushing them deeper into Ukraine. Russia might even preempt U.S. action, escalating before any additional U.S. aid arrives. Such escalation might extend Russia; Eastern Ukraine is already a drain. Taking more of Ukraine might only increase the burden, albeit at the expense of the Ukrainian people. However, such a move might also come at a significant cost to Ukraine and to U.S. prestige and credibility. This could produce disproportionately large Ukrainian casualties, territorial losses, and refugee flows. It might even lead Ukraine into a disadvantageous peace.
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Measure 4: Undermine Russia’s Standing Internationally

Russian prestige has become an increasingly important part of the regime’s attempts to legitimize its rule, built on narratives that Russia is reasserting its rightful place as a great power in the world. It is worth noting that while Russian actions over the past several years, notably in Syria, have clearly established Russia as an increasingly assertive player in the world, popular opinion in most key countries toward Russia, Ideological and Informational Measures 169 and President Putin specifically, remains quite negative. 80 Russia lost its place in the (formerly) G-8 meetings after the invasion of Crimea; it has been the subject of multiple sets of sanctions by the United States and the EU; and it received widespread condemnation in Europe following the shooting down of Malaysian Airlines Flight MH17 in 2014. Nonetheless, Russia’s international standing could be weak- ened further. Russia could be excluded from additional international forums, such as the G-20; face wider sanctions and travel bans; and lose the right to host prestigious international events.
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