Den stora tråden om global uppvärmning/växthuseffekten

The instantaneous radiative forcing (IRF) at the top of the atmosphere (ToA) is the initial change of the total energy in the climate system when the concentration of greenhouse gas (GHG) increases. In my previous presentation at the 2010 Fall AGU meeting (A11J-02, "Mechanism of Radiative Forcing of Greenhouse Gas its Implication to the Global Warming"), it was demonstrated that IRF at TOA is generated by moving up of the emission weighting function. Thus, the temperature gradient plays a critical role in determining the climate effect of GHG. In this presentation the change of the outgoing infrared radiation flux at ToA is studied from a perturbation point of view. After the cancellation between the changes in the outgoing radiation flux from the surface emission and from the reemission of the atmosphere, the derivative of the outgoing flux to the concentration of GHG is found to be proportional to the temperature gradients below the level where the concentration of GHG changes. Therefore, the greenhouse gas contribute only to the magnitude of the radiative forcing, the temperature gradients decide the direction of the radiative forcing, i.e. warming or cooling, in addition to contributing to its magnitude. In response to the question "Does the negative IRF at ToA lead to the surface cooling or it only cools the upper part of the atmosphere?" the Eddington grey radiative equilibrium model is modified to simulate different scenarios. The original model has been used to illustrate the warming effect of GHG in textbooks of the atmospheric physics. It is modified by adding source terms from the absorption of the solar flux and the internal energy exchange in the atmosphere. In two cases the modified model generates atmospheres with a large and warm stratosphere and negative IRF at ToA when GHG increases by 25%. This negative radiative forcing can lead to the cooling of the atmosphere all the way down to the surface. The implications of the cooling effect of GHG to the climate change, including paleoclimatology and the prerequests for climate models to include cooling effect of GHG properly are discussed.