Putin beordrar styrkor att gå in i Ukraina - INVASION NU (2022-02-24)

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Conclusion


It would take a country the size of Ukraine the better part of a decade and a massive level of support from friendly nations to recover from the devastation the Ukraine military has already suffered. The idea that the UAF – or the armed forces of any nation on earth – can recover from the level of destruction they’ve suffered to date and rebuild the strength necessary to drive an invader out while at the same time fighting an existential battle, is flatly unrealistic.

Russia continues to take severe losses itself. Putin’s forces are not immune to the consequences of losing trained and experienced personnel, but as previously noted, Russia has millions more men from which to draw new conscripts and hundreds of thousands of other active troops that can be repurposed to ground combat. It is by no means guaranteed that Russia would be able to achieve total victory over Ukraine, but the fundamentals are present to give the idea some chance of success. For Ukraine, however, there is minuscule chance of winning and a higher probability of failure if they try to launch an offensive.

An unemotional assessment of this war would lead to the conclusion that the Ukrainian political leadership should seek the best-negotiated settlement it could get now, while it still has complete control of Kharkiv, Odesa, and most of Donetsk Oblast – and before another significant city is turned to rubble and tens of thousands more of its citizens killed or wounded. But war is not an unemotional endeavor, and Zelensky has to make choices that are anguishing and very much filled with emotion.

No one can make these decisions but the people and leaders of Ukraine. But as this assessment reveals, the options for a Ukrainian military victory are likely to continue dwindling with the passing of time.