Citat:
Ja, det är därför det knappt går att producera en matematisk modell som kommer i närheten av att likna verkligheten.
Ja. Spridningen av Corona-viruset är mycket ojämnt fördelat mellan individer. Den här artikeln beskriver Corona-virusets ojämna spridning. Artikeln skrev 19:e maj 2020, så det kan ha kommit mer aktuell kunskap om detta senare.
Citat från Science:
Citat från Science:
Why do some COVID-19 patients infect many others, whereas most don’t spread the virus at all?10 % av smittbärarna står för 80 % av smittspridningen.
By Kai Kupferschmidt May. 19, 2020 , 5:25 PM
...
Most of the discussion around the spread of SARS-CoV-2 has concentrated on the average number of new infections caused by each patient. Without social distancing, this reproduction number (R) is about three. But in real life, some people infect many others and others don’t spread the disease at all. In fact, the latter is the norm, Lloyd-Smith says: “The consistent pattern is that the most common number is zero. Most people do not transmit.”
That’s why in addition to R, scientists use a value called the dispersion factor (k), which describes how much a disease clusters. The lower k is, the more transmission comes from a small number of people. ...
Estimates of k for SARS-CoV-2 vary. In January, Julien Riou and Christian Althaus at the University of Bern simulated the epidemic in China for different combinations of R and k and compared the outcomes with what had actually taken place. They concluded that k for COVID-19 is somewhat higher than for SARS and MERS. ... But in a recent preprint, Adam Kucharski of LSHTM estimated that k for COVID-19 is as low as 0.1. “Probably about 10% of cases lead to 80% of the spread,” Kucharski says.
