Dödligt virus från Kina orsakar panik (SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19)

Citat:

Ursprungligen postat av jerka11

Du måste vara Gunde-Svan-optimist för att hitta en kurva som pekar signifikant nedåt i Tjeckien .

https://onemocneni-aktualne.mzcr.cz/covid-19?utm_source=general&utm_medium=widget&utm_campai gn=covid-19

Men förr eller senare vänder det nedåt även i Tjeckien precis på samma sätt som det gjorde här i Sverige i våras. Inga konstigheter med det, men väldigt onödigt att dra till med suboptimala och väldigt dyra och samhällsförstörande åtgärder som man gjort i onödan i Tjeckien.

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Our findings on the effects of introducing NPIs were broadly in line with the findings from Flaxman and colleagues' multicountry study that assessed the impact of different NPIs among 11 European countries.4 Flaxman and colleagues reported that several NPIs (eg, school closure and public events ban), and lockdown in particular, had a large effect (81%) on reducing transmission.4 However, Flaxman and colleagues did not assess changes over time in the effect of lockdown and assumed that the effect was immediate. In this study, we estimated that an extreme intervention similar to lockdown, consisting of school and workplace closure, bans on public events and gatherings, requirements to stay at home, and limits on internal movement, could reduce R by 35% on day 7, 42% on day 14, and 52% on day 28. Our findings on the effects of introducing NPIs were also qualitatively similar to those from a study by Islam and colleagues that modelled the incidence rate ratio of COVID-19 with OxCGRT NPI data,15 although that study did not assess the effects of lifting NPIs.

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Our analysis demonstrates that the effect of introducing and lifting NPIs was not immediate and that the time required to reach certain levels of effect differed by NPI. This finding provides important evidence to policy makers on when to expect a notable effect from introducing or lifting an NPI. The observed delay of effect could be explained by behavioural inertia, which is supported by the similar immediacy results of NPIs between using R and using Google mobility data.