Tja, jag är väl en av få som tror att man kan ha viktat fel i pollsen...men till Trumps fördel. Inte en gång, utan vid flera tillfällen, har det poppat upp mätningar som visar på sinnessjuka siffror för Biden. Jag påstår inte att de har 100% rätt, och/men de har oftast kommit när
mycket dråpliga nyheter om presidenten har släppts; de som höjt sig ovanför det vanliga nyhetsbruset det vill säga. Vilket tyder på att trendpilen visat korrekt hela tiden (om än möjligtvis något bristfällig när det gäller själva urvalet av deltagare ibland).
Those 'shy' Trump voters may have existed in 2016, but pollsters aren't finding them now
Citat:
While Trump could do better on Nov. 3 than current polls suggest, we have found no evidence of hidden Trump supporters this time around. [...] Some have suggested these voters were late deciders. But even by early October, we were able to detect their support for Trump. [...] nearly all survey respondents are currently indicating their vote intention. According to a recent CNN poll, only 3% of respondents did not indicate support for either Biden or Trump. By contrast, a similarly timed CNN poll in 2016 had 14% not indicating support for Clinton or Trump.
Whose voters are 'hidden' in polling data? 'Shy' Biden voters may actually outnumber Trump’s
Citat:
A full 65 percent of Trump voters say that all or most of their neighbors will vote for Trump. Just 5 percent of Trump voters say that all or most of their neighbors will vote for Biden. [...] Biden voters, on the other hand, tend to live in more politically diverse areas [...] It is Biden voters, not Trump voters, who are more likely to be “shy” enough to hide their politics; In other words, Biden voters are more inclined than Trump voters to stay silent when surrounded by the other side.
Will these dynamics decide the election? Probably not. For one thing, the Yahoo News/YouGov poll is an online survey, meaning that “social desirability bias” is basically a nonissue. Even if a bunch of Trump supporters were worried about being stigmatized, there are no human interviewers from whom they might feel compelled to hide their true feelings. Thirty-nine percent of registered voters now say they will vote for Trump. Forty-nine percent say they will vote for Biden. They are saying this from the privacy of their own computers. Biden’s lead is real.
(FB) Presidentvalet 2020
(FB) Presidentvalet 2020
