Dödligt virus från Kina orsakar panik (SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19)

Victoria's Health Minister Jenny Mikakos has resigned in the wake of Premier Daniel Andrews’ testimony to the state’s hotel quarantine inquiry, in which he said she was responsible for the bungled scheme that resulted in a devastating second wave of the virus in the state.
In a statement posted on Twitter, Mikakos said she had written to Victoria’s Governor to resign as minister and will also be resigning from Parliament.

“I have never wanted to leave a job unfinished, but in light of the premier’s statement to the board of inquiry and the fact that there are elements in it that I strongly disagree with, I believe that I cannot continue to serve in his cabinet,” she wrote.

On Friday, Andrews said that Mikakos was responsible for the hotel quarantine program, but said he does know who made the decision to use private security contractors to manage the hotel quarantine system. Mikakos said on Saturday she took responsibility for the department, but said it was not her responsibility alone.
The Board of Inquiry has heard evidence that Victoria’s second wave was started by leaks from the hotel quarantine scheme. Friday was the last day of hearings for Victoria’s inquiry into the failure of the hotel quarantine program. The Board of Inquiry’s final report is due on November 6.

What kind of model does IHME use to produce these estimates?
IHME uses a hybrid modeling approach to generate our forecasts, which incorporates elements of statistical and disease transmission models. Our model is grounded primarily in real-time data instead of assumptions about how the disease will spread. We update our model frequently to respond to new data and new information, describing the changes on our estimation updates page. More detail on the prediction models can be found in articles published as preprints "COVID-19 scenarios for the United States" (specifically in the Supplementary Material) and "Predictive performance of international COVID-19 mortality forecasting models" with additional details on prior versions of the model described in preprints "Forecasting the impact of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on hospital demand and deaths for the USA and European Economic Area countries" and "Forecasting COVID-19 impact on hospital bed-days, ICU-days, ventilator days and deaths by US state in the next 4 months."

Why are you modeling three different scenarios?
In making these forecasts, we aim to help policymakers plan for the days and months ahead, and take action to change the course of the pandemic for the better. We do not know which course of action policymakers will choose, so we decided to model the impact of three different courses of action that policymakers may be evaluating. For more on the scenarios see the question, “What assumptions are included in each scenario?” above.