Läser Nordeas marknadsbrev. Billigare med hammer and dance än låta viruset härja fritt. Med fri spridning kommer folk självisolera sig och dra ned på sin konsumtion och effekten liknar lockdown. De refererar till ett amerikanskt papper. Tycker den ökade rörligheten i grannländerna tyder på det medan "duktiga" Sverige (enligt Expressen) rör på sig mindre. Men vad förstår de sig på ekonomin på Expressen.
The issue for populous states like Texas, California and Florida,
if the spread is not contained, is that consumption may take a “lock-down like” hit if the virus spread is not under control as was suggested in a paper by Chetty, Friedman et al. If the virus is spreading fast, people opt to stay at home no matter the lock-down policy. This is exactly why the
“hammer and the dance” is the cheapest medium-term policy. Countries with a low spread of the virus and an efficient testing strategy seem to have a better re-opening scope with
Norway as a clear example. Even a country like Spain is now relatively open measured by the Covid-19 Stringency Index, which goes to show that
Europe generally holds a better re-opening momentum than the US right now.
We generally find that
fatality/hospitalization momentum is the most important gauge, when assessing whether a country holds a scope for re-opening the economy or not. Fatalities per capita suggest that
Norway, Finland, Denmark, Germany and the likes are more likely (than others) to increasingly
re-open the economy, while countries like
Sweden, UK and US are more l
ikely to halt re-opening momentum due to more fatalities per capita. And if the Chetty and Friedman paper is right, then re-opening only equals increased consumption in case the virus spread is decently contained.
https://e-markets.nordea.com/#!/article/58593/fx-weekly-europe-vs-us-1-0
Och här den amerikanska artikeln.
https://opportunityinsights.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/tracker_paper.pdf