Citat:
Ursprungligen postat av
Ulf-Utredaren
Ja Italienarna har ju misslyckats fatalt med precis allt. En kollapsad sjukvård. Ett enormt högt dödstal bland den egna sjukhuspersonalen, en ekonomisk krasch utan dess like och en fullständig kollaps på allt.
Jag förstår att de borde ha gjort nånting annorlunda.
Men det var nog svårt. Som för alla andra länder. Handlar nog väldigt mycket om hur mycket smitta man fick in i landet från början vad det verkar snarare än vilka åtgärder man inför.
Yes, but I don’t believe that our methods of triage are that far off from Italy’s levels, and that both will negatively impact the base-IFR. For example, New York City lands at a 1% IFR using official numbers, yet attempted to save everybody they could and had a 90% mortality rate in their ICU’s. And for all the chaos in Lombardy, only 30-40% are estimated to be immune.
The risk of sliding into a higher IFR from whatever the base is seems constant.
If the antibody testing results of 7.5% in Stockholm are accurate, these will be matched in the death totals in 1-2 days, depending on what antibody was measured for — this may take longer. When the backlog is fleshed out, we can then estimate the IFR for Stockholm. Initially it was at 0.75% but has since risen to 0.81%. I could see that settling into around 1% or higher, but I agree that Lombardy must have an inflated IFR due to their hospital situation.
I also agree that initial infection had a lot to do with which countries were hit the hardest. But the timing of their measures seems to be of large importance. I don’t think the UK would have been hit as hard if they had chosen to lockdown just a week earlier.