Citat:
Lägger även till case där vi lyckas skydda 70+. You have to remember that antibodies form earlier than the deaths from that percentage of the population occur on average. Sometime next week will reveal the death toll for 7% in Stockholm and what our current IFR is. I believe we’ll be at over a 1% IFR due to our hospital strain and triaging — but we should see around 1% in official numbers.
My predictions below:
Assuming a 1% IFR, we can calculate different outcomes based on the percentages required for herd immunity. The highest I have seen is the CDC’s appraisal at 82% and the lowest I have seen is the FHM’s appraisal of 50%.
IFR = 1% (base) — this is our best-case scenario where adequate care can be given to everybody, and resources are available.
50% = 50,000+ deaths
60% = 60,000+ deaths
70% = 70,000+ deaths
82% = 82,000+ deaths
Considering our triage methods, I personally believe this will skew our IFR somewhere between 1.5% to 2%. Care is beginning to become stretched as resources are thin, and patients are actively triaged against. This is where I personally believe we’ll end up if hospitals do not collapse further.
IFR = 1.5% (lower-bound current)
50% = 75,000+ deaths
60% = 90,000+ deaths
70% = 105,000+ deaths
82% = 123,000+ deaths
IFR = 2% (higher-bound current)
50% = 100,000+ deaths
60% = 120,000+ deaths
70% = 140,000+ deaths
82% = 164,000+ deaths
If our hospitals collapse further then adequate care will not be given to any patient, as resources will be stretched extremely thin. Triaging will become far stricter as the age cut-off becomes younger. We can assume a 3% IFR in this situation. This is the hard collapse scenario, and the one I believe we are heading towards unless immediate action is taken.
IFR = 3% (hard collapse)
50% = 150,000+ deaths
60% = 180,000+ deaths
70% = 210,000+ deaths
82% = 246,000+ deaths
We also have the complete collapse scenario in which no care at all is given to those who need medical care to survive. This is in the event of resources running out completely, an overwhelming majority of doctors becoming sick, or hospitals being abandoned. I’d estimate this at around a 5% IFR.
IFR = 5% (complete collapse)
50% = 250,000+ deaths
60% = 300,000+ deaths
70% = 350,000+ deaths
82% = 410,000+ deaths
My predictions below:
Assuming a 1% IFR, we can calculate different outcomes based on the percentages required for herd immunity. The highest I have seen is the CDC’s appraisal at 82% and the lowest I have seen is the FHM’s appraisal of 50%.
IFR = 1% (base) — this is our best-case scenario where adequate care can be given to everybody, and resources are available.
50% = 50,000+ deaths
60% = 60,000+ deaths
70% = 70,000+ deaths
82% = 82,000+ deaths
Considering our triage methods, I personally believe this will skew our IFR somewhere between 1.5% to 2%. Care is beginning to become stretched as resources are thin, and patients are actively triaged against. This is where I personally believe we’ll end up if hospitals do not collapse further.
IFR = 1.5% (lower-bound current)
50% = 75,000+ deaths
60% = 90,000+ deaths
70% = 105,000+ deaths
82% = 123,000+ deaths
IFR = 2% (higher-bound current)
50% = 100,000+ deaths
60% = 120,000+ deaths
70% = 140,000+ deaths
82% = 164,000+ deaths
If our hospitals collapse further then adequate care will not be given to any patient, as resources will be stretched extremely thin. Triaging will become far stricter as the age cut-off becomes younger. We can assume a 3% IFR in this situation. This is the hard collapse scenario, and the one I believe we are heading towards unless immediate action is taken.
IFR = 3% (hard collapse)
50% = 150,000+ deaths
60% = 180,000+ deaths
70% = 210,000+ deaths
82% = 246,000+ deaths
We also have the complete collapse scenario in which no care at all is given to those who need medical care to survive. This is in the event of resources running out completely, an overwhelming majority of doctors becoming sick, or hospitals being abandoned. I’d estimate this at around a 5% IFR.
IFR = 5% (complete collapse)
50% = 250,000+ deaths
60% = 300,000+ deaths
70% = 350,000+ deaths
82% = 410,000+ deaths
IFR = 0.2%
50% = 10000 döda
60% = 12000 döda
70% = 14000 döda
82% = 16000 döda
