Citat:
Closed population studies (like the Diamond Princess, Bergamo town that lost over 1% of its population) etc. point to 0.7%+, which is the absolute lowest I’ve seen as an accepted theory.
South Korea, I think, is what we have waiting for us if we can swing past a hospital collapse and actually begin mass-testing while maintaining good care standards. I think they’ve caught an overwhelming majority of cases, and even then — around 2% of those cases have died. Iceland had a promising start with looking for a lower CFR but that’s shot up as the time progresses and cases resolve. Sanford study and the German study have been torn to shreds because the serological testing produces far too many false positives amongst other factors — and everything looks to point towards 1% in my eyes, but I can see it sinking down for 0.7%.
We have factors in Sweden that’ll drive our CFR up. Our hospitals are triaging, the infection is in elderly homes — not enough action has been taken to slow the spread. Tegnell supports the suggestion that 30% of Stockholm is infected. I believe it’s far less, but considering we’re barely seeing a couple percent of infected in the deaths statistics, that is extremely worrying if true.
Considering the multiple case studies released this week supporting the fact that COVID19 sheds simply through breathing, I’d give it at least an 80% infection needed for herd immunity.
8,000,000 x 0.01 = 80,000 deaths if the commonly proposed IFR (Imperial college, closed population studies) is true and we see a best case situation where hospitals don’t collapse.
If the IFR is 0.67% or higher like I’ve seen proposed in case studies as well, we’ll be given 53,600 deaths in a best case situation. (8,000,000 x 0.0067)
And in the worst case scenarios, I’d expect death rates to at least triple in the event of a hospital collapse. Anywhere from 100,000 to 200,000+ deaths.
This is using what scientists world-wise have concluded, at least — and I read the criticism to the papers as well to keep my mind open. Hopefully we can get through this without everybody being infected, but we’ll see.
South Korea, I think, is what we have waiting for us if we can swing past a hospital collapse and actually begin mass-testing while maintaining good care standards. I think they’ve caught an overwhelming majority of cases, and even then — around 2% of those cases have died. Iceland had a promising start with looking for a lower CFR but that’s shot up as the time progresses and cases resolve. Sanford study and the German study have been torn to shreds because the serological testing produces far too many false positives amongst other factors — and everything looks to point towards 1% in my eyes, but I can see it sinking down for 0.7%.
We have factors in Sweden that’ll drive our CFR up. Our hospitals are triaging, the infection is in elderly homes — not enough action has been taken to slow the spread. Tegnell supports the suggestion that 30% of Stockholm is infected. I believe it’s far less, but considering we’re barely seeing a couple percent of infected in the deaths statistics, that is extremely worrying if true.
Considering the multiple case studies released this week supporting the fact that COVID19 sheds simply through breathing, I’d give it at least an 80% infection needed for herd immunity.
8,000,000 x 0.01 = 80,000 deaths if the commonly proposed IFR (Imperial college, closed population studies) is true and we see a best case situation where hospitals don’t collapse.
If the IFR is 0.67% or higher like I’ve seen proposed in case studies as well, we’ll be given 53,600 deaths in a best case situation. (8,000,000 x 0.0067)
And in the worst case scenarios, I’d expect death rates to at least triple in the event of a hospital collapse. Anywhere from 100,000 to 200,000+ deaths.
This is using what scientists world-wise have concluded, at least — and I read the criticism to the papers as well to keep my mind open. Hopefully we can get through this without everybody being infected, but we’ll see.
Okej ja skillnaden mellan 16 000 och 54 000 är enligt mig marginell. 0,16 mot 0,54%.
Med tanke på att jag innan Corona fanns förväntade mig en pandemi som skulle plocka 20% av befolkningen pga mänsklighetens vidriga leverne.
