Ursprungligen postat av
OUFCompulsive
Imperial College estimated 330,000 infected in Sweden on the 30th. Let’s say it takes 1 week to double our numbers. That would put us at 660,000 today, or 6.6% of the population.
Considering a median range of 18.8 days from infection to death (Imperial College est.), and keeping in mind outliers — we can begin estimating our current numbers from three weeks ago by dividing 330,000 by 2, 165k by 2, and then 82.5k by 2, 41,250 infected. This is 6.2% of the current amount we have infected, currently.
It’s worth noting this “median time” is around the same time deaths started shooting up. We can calculate that in this time - to now, let’s say the 26th to this very minute – we have gone from 78 dead to 358 dead.
280 people have “officially died” of the coronavirus, alongside 381 in intensive care. This doesn’t count any that have died but are not counted towards the death statistics, because there is surely a confidence interval there that I cannot predict, because I don’t know what leads to a case being declared “death by coronavirus”. I do however know that a certain number of people by all statistical probability must have died of the disease in their homes, and that a number of people must have died and been declared dead due to other circumstances/lack of testing (or it has fallen through the cracks and will be reported later). I think an additional 100-200 doesn’t sound unfair. That puts us at 380-480 dead, or a current CFR of 0.9-1.1%. Because this is speculation, I will only account for official numbers in my calculations below.
Now, keep in mind this is 6.2% of where we’re at currently. Following the median time of 18.8 days, we can start looking at the 18th-27th of April.
Considering hospitals are overwhelmed and euthanasia is now taking place, I will refer to Imperial College and Bill Gates estimates of 3-4% CFR. Taking our current 330 IVA patients and scaling up to our current situation (an increase of x16), we’re starting to look at 5280 patients in total. This mirrors the situations in other hard-struck countries where the disease has run rampant before lockdown has been declared too late. Of course, these countries can handle such a massive number of intensive care patients. Sweden cannot.
Let us say we can increase our capacity to 1000 IVA beds. This is likely not going to be the case, and we have a hard limit on 700 respirators at this moment in time. We can remove the 330 previous IVA patients from the total (they will either recover, die or be euthanized at this point), and add the excess 3950 to our death tally.
Deaths on the other hand will be 280 x 16 + 3950 = 8430 - or 1.2% CFR/IFR rate.
This won’t be the case. Medical care will be extremely strained by this new influx of sick people and care standards will drop immensely. We can probably begin to assume 3% of all infected die at this point. So let’s x our number by 2.5, to arrive at 21,075 will roughly be dead around this time. There is no way to stop this happening at this point, as the damage is already done, and is why countries have sacrificed their economies to slow the amount of human suffering that will incur otherwise.
Some other IFR models include FHM’s 0.025% prediction, whereby they estimate at this point 1,650 people will have died — or other IFR’s such as the 0.7% and 0.6% models, leading to 4620 and 3960 deaths in a best case scenario.
Adding to a confidence interval of 50% in both directions death-wise, gives us a range of 10,537 ~ 31,612 deaths. It’s wise to again further note that this is why other countries didn’t fuck around with closing their borders, schools, places of work and quarantining their population immediately. I personally believe we’ll land somewhere around 12-20,000 by this point; but this depends on if the restrictions placed by the FHM have any effect at all.
If no further restrictions are placed on us, at this point we will reach 5,280,000 infected, or 52% of the population. This would be a 8.3x the number of infected from the previous jump, and our society would collapse. We also would not be at our goal of herd immunity considering R0>3 requires 70%~ for herd immunity (ref. Imperial College), although likely the week after that when we begin to creep into May, an overwhelming majority will be sick. If this method is continued, we will of course peak in May, and IFR/CFR will likely rise above 3-4% based on the sheer volume of the sick population and extreme lack of possible medical care. Supply chains will break down entirely, we will all lose people close to us, and we’ll find our how friendly our neighbors are when the food runs out and our taps run dry. Even considering a 50% asymptomatic rate and a 30% mild rate and minus estimated those already sick up to this period of time, society cannot handle 500,000 - 1,000,000 actively sick people of differing levels of illness at one time.
Again, this is a massive reason as to why other countries chose to lock down immediately. The economy be damned, we can rebuild it. The sheer structural collapse we risk otherwise is unbelievable.
