Iranska generalen Qasem Soleimani dödad i amerikansk attack i Bagdad

Iran responded Tuesday night to the U.S. government’s killing of one of its top military figures with missile attacks on two Iraqi military bases that house U.S. troops. And while some are labeling that an escalation — and much could still change — it appears Iran may be giving Trump a politically palatable off-ramp from further clashes.

And it’s an off-ramp that Trump, according to his initial comments, appears inclined to take. We could get a better sense of that Wednesday morning, when Trump is slated to address the nation about Iran at 11 a.m. Eastern.

Early indications are that the United States may have avoided casualties, and Iraq’s government says it didn’t suffer any either. Iran also followed up its attacks by giving conflicting signals about whether this could be the end of its military response to Qasem Soleimani’s death.

It’s important to emphasize how much Trump views international affairs in terms of wins and losses. Not only could Trump say that he took out a man who is said to have killed hundreds of Americans without a more serious response from the Iranians, but he could also say that dire Democratic and pundit predictions of impending war with Iran — or even World War III — were overcooked. It’ll be perceived as a double win by a man who thrives on “owning the libs.” Combine that with Trump’s apparently rather sincere desire to get out of the Middle East, and there appears to be little incentive for Trump to respond with any kind of force.

The situation is, of course, fluid. Even if Iran doesn’t retaliate any further, the killing of Soleimani could weigh on any potential military provocations and on potential negotiations. Iran is still suffering mightily from U.S. sanctions, which is the reason for its provocations in the first place, and that friction won’t disappear overnight even if there is a momentary detente. Trump will continue to have to deal with Iran for the remainder of his presidency, whether that be one year or five years.

For now, though, we can perhaps be optimistic that this situation hasn’t escalated further. Trump seems to be.

It’ll be perceived as a double win by a man who thrives on “owning the libs.”