Konflikten i Syrien

Washington (CNN) Al Qaeda's Syrian affiliate, Jabhat al-Nusra, is a greater threat to the United States in the long term than is ISIS, making the United States' current single-minded focus on the latter group misguided, a new report is charging.

Al-Nusra is "much more dangerous to the U.S. than the ISIS model in the long run," according to the authors of a report labeling both groups "existential" threats. The report was released last week by the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War.

The report criticizes the administration's ISIS-centric strategy, saying, "Any strategy that leaves Jabhat al-Nusra in place will fail to secure the American homeland."
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Though for now al-Nusra hasn't undertaken attacks in the West like ISIS has, Kagan said it's just as potent.

"While ISIS is flashier ... both represent an existential threat, both wish to attack the homeland, both seek the mobilization of Muslim communities against the West," she said.

In fact, Kagan warned that al Qaeda's Syrian branch represented a longer-term and more intractable threat than ISIS and that targeting al-Nusra would be more difficult than targeting the other group, both of which take advantage of the chaos of the Syrian civil war to expand their reach.

"Al-Nusra is quietly intertwining itself with the Syrian population and Syrian opposition. ... They are waiting in the wings to pick up the mantle of global jihad once ISIS falls," she said.
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Kagan said she believes al-Nusra has made a tactical decision not to attack the West for the time being.

"Right now, al-Nusra has decided not to overtly host attack cells because the al Qaeda leadership's priority is preserving success in Syria and avoiding being targeted by the U.S.," she said.

But she explained that the report still treated it as a larger threat than ISIS because, "We define a threat as having the capability and the intent. ... The capability is already there, and in time the intent will be as well."