Konflikten i Syrien

Qatar's foreign minister hints at military intervention in Syria
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Qatar's alleged support for the militant Islamist group Ahrah al-Sham was also brought into focus. "

They are not allies of al-Qaeda," Attiyah said. "They are a Syrian group fighting to liberate their country.

"We do not consider them extremists and terrorists," Attiyah added, saying Ahrar al-Sham was part of the "moderate opposition".

But Attiyah also refused to rule out direct military action by Qatar in Syria.

"We will spare no effort to do anything that can help protect the Syrian people and Syria from partition, with our Saudi and Turkish brethren, whatever this may be," he said. "If military intervention would protect the Syrian people from the brutality of the Syrian regime, then of course we will do it.

Zaid Benjamin Verifierat konto
‏@zaidbenjamin
Ahrar ash-Sham forge alliance with Jabhat al-Nusra one day after a CNN interview with #Qatar's FM saying that Ahrar has no links to al-Qaeda

One key reason for the minimal territorial shifts so far is the use of American BGM-71 TOW anti-tank guided missiles by CIA-backed Free Syrian Army rebels. The missiles, which first appeared in rebel hands in April 2014, have been used far more (a nearly 850% rise) since the Russian intervention: there were 82 recorded uses from October 1 to 20, compared to only 13 in all of September. With each missile valued at least $50,000, that equates to over $2.5 million of expenditure in two weeks.

Having initially had an effective, but strategically subdued effect on the conflict, the CIA coordinated provision of TOW missiles has suddenly shown its true potential. Combatants on the ground -- including 13th Division leader Lieutenant Colonel Ahmed Saoud and the leaders of three other CIA-backed FSA groups -- all told me that they have received more TOWs than normal recently and stressed how useful they have been. "TOWs will destroy the Russians and their objectives, and we've received many more recently," Saoud said.

Beyond extra deliveries of TOW missiles to 'vetted' groups - of which there are at least 39 across Syria -- external supporters have provided supplementary small arms, ammunition, mortars, and sometimes 122mm Grad rockets and tank shells. Newly arrived RBG-6 multiple grenade launchers from the former Yugoslavia have also begun appearing again in rebel hands, having first been funneled to FSA groups by Saudi Arabia in early 2013.

Firstly, the fact that moderate FSA factions have been hit so hard in Russian strikes -- and that these same groups have been so effective in using their TOW missiles -- has closed the gap between them and some of the most conservative Syrian Islamists. While they were somewhat distrustful of each other earlier this year, they have been celebrating each other's battlefield successes since Russia started its strikes.

- Secondly, some diplomatic statements notwithstanding, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, and other Gulf states are furious at Russia's actions. They have and will continue to encourage closer military coordination between the FSA and Syrian Islamists, which provides transnationally-minded groups like Jabhat al-Nusra and other al-Qaida-linked factions with space to further integrate into broader opposition dynamics. Already, a number of multi-group operations rooms have been established in areas targeted by Russian strikes in which 'vetted' FSA groups, Syrian Islamists and sometimes Jabhat al-Nusra have openly flaunted their cooperation. This was a rare occurrence even one month ago.