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Ursprungligen postat av
bernad_law
EU agerar rationellt och lugnt, till skillnad från Putin. Man bygger upp sanktionerna genom att hela tiden ge Ryssland möjlighet att trappa ner situationen och återvända till sina baser, och om ryssarna är dumma nog att inte förstå sitt eget bästa ökas trycket successivt. Samma sak gäller USA.
Skottlossning rapporterad på flera platser på Krim nu, det tycks som de ukrainska soldaterna fortsätter att vägra ge upp trots överväldigande odds. Det om något kommer bli framtida hjältehistorier för det nya nationalgardet och hela Ukraina.
Medborgare i östra Ukraina förbereder sig på gerillakrig i händelse av en rysk invasion och ockupation. Det kommer att kosta många av dem livet i så fall, men förhoppningsvis kan de även skada ockupanterna:
http://www.buzzfeed.com/mikegiglio/residents-of-eastern-ukraine-warn-of-partisan-war-if-russia
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The government in Kiev has rushed forces to the border and started mobilizing reserves and a national guard. But many of its supporters in the region believe these measures would do little to stop a determined Russian advance.
Instead, some locals say they’re readying themselves for what they call a “partisan war” — or guerilla war — against their far more powerful enemy.
The Palchenko household counted itself enthusiastically among these ranks. Asked how many of their neighbors supported the idea, Olga, Alexander’s prim and amiable wife, made a fierce chopping motion with her hand: “All of them.”
Russia boasts many supporters in the Donetsk region, where Kramatorsk lies, and many more would be too afraid to join the fight — making Olga Palchenko’s assessment far too optimistic. But sentiments for taking up arms among some residents around the region seemed very real, and some said they were already organizing themselves for the fight.
Sitting at the family’s computer, Alexey Palchenko, 28, said many of his friends had bought guns recently, and he pulled up an article he’d found the day before on a local version of Facebook. Complete with diagrams and lessons on urban warfare from Chechnya, it was titled: “How to destroy a Russian tank.”
More formal efforts were underway — Alexey Palchenko was a member of a local group that claimed about 50 men, and said they’d organized themselves for “self-defense.”
The group’s leader, Vladimir Tkachuk, 42, said he’d made an “evacuation plan” with his family, whom he planned to rush to Kiev in the event of an invasion. He’d then return quickly to Donetsk, he said: “Our organization will go underground, and we will fight.”
A former Soviet ranger who fought in Tajikistan in the early 1990s, Tkachuk had returned from war to become a pastor, and he led a small Pentecostal congregation in the city. He and other locals had organized themselves during this winter’s protests in Kiev, first as medics and then as guards. He was still unsure how they would find the weapons, he said, but was hopeful they and groups like them could make life hard on the Russians if they came to Donetsk. “We understand that the Ukrainian army is much weaker than the Russian army. But if we speak about partisan war, it’s a horrible thing, and they must know it,” he said. “This is not Crimea.”
Others around Donetsk also said they were organizing. In the city of Gorlovka, Igor Slavgorodskiy, the Donetsk head of a powerful far-right political party called Svoboda, said he had organized local cells and secret gathering points around the city. He wouldn’t say how many men he had — hundreds, he claimed, though his reaction suggested the true figure might be lower. He said many more would surface if an invasion took place. They had gathered “some quantity of legal weapons,” he added, but needed more. “If the invasion happens, we are ready to face them,” he said. “How do we react to occupiers? We struggle against them. I don’t think we meet them with flowers.”
När Ryssland invaderar kan det leda till riktiga massakrer, som när de förvägrade tjetjenerna självständighet i det första tjetjenska kriget:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Chechen_War
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By the estimates of Yeltsin's human rights adviser Sergei Kovalev, about 27,000 civilians died in the first five weeks of fighting. Russian historian and general Dmitri Volkogonov said the Russian military's bombardment of Grozny killed around 35,000 civilians, including 5,000 children, and that the vast majority of those killed were ethnic Russians. While military casualties are not known, the Russian side admitted to having 2,000 soldiers killed or missing.[20] The bloodbath of Grozny shocked Russia and the outside world, causing severe criticism of the war. International monitors from the OSCE described the scenes as nothing short of an "unimaginable catastrophe", while former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev called the war a "disgraceful, bloody adventure" and German Chancellor Helmut Kohl called it "sheer madness".[21]---
The official figure for Russian military deaths is 5,500, while most estimates put the number between 3,500 and 7,500, or even as high as 14,000.[4] Although there are no accurate figures for the number of Chechen militants killed, various estimates put the number at about 3,000 to over 15,000 deaths. Various figures estimate the number of civilian deaths at between 30,000 and 100,000 killed and possibly over 200,000 injured, while more than 500,000 people were displaced by the conflict, which left cities and villages across the republic in ruins.