Jag tror att Dmitrij Trenin, som jag sett förnuftiga kommentarer från tidigare, är helt rätt ute i sina funderingar om de långsiktiga konsekvenserna av Moskvas aggression. BBC TV rapporterar att ryska trupper "are digging trenches" vid Krims gräns norrut:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/02/ukraine-warns-russia-crimea-war-live
Den ukrainska regeringen försöker hitta konstruktiva, fredliga lösningar på den situation Putinregimen tvingat på dem:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26405082
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/02/ukraine-warns-russia-crimea-war-live
Citat:
Dmitri Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Centre, writes for Comment is Free that the crisis in Crimea could lead the world into a second cold war.
This is perhaps the most dangerous point in Europe’s history since the end of the cold war. Direct confrontation between Russian and Ukrainian forces will draw in the United States, one way or another...
The Crimea crisis will not pass soon. Kiev is unlikely to agree to Crimea’s secession, even if backed by clear popular will: this would be discounted because of the “foreign occupation” of the peninsula. The crisis is also expanding to include other players, notably the United States. So far, there has been no military confrontation between Russian and Ukrainian forces, but if they clash, this will not be a repeat of the five-day war in the South Caucasus, as in 2008. The conflict will be longer and bloodier, with security in Europe put at its highest risk in a quarter century.
Even if there is no war, the Crimea crisis is likely to alter fundamentally relations between Russia and the west and lead to changes in the global power balance, with Russia now in open competition with the United States and the European Union in the new eastern Europe. If this happens, a second round of the cold war may ensue as a punishment for leaving many issues unsolved – such as Ukraine’s internal cohesion, the special position of Crimea, or the situation of Russian ethnics in the newly independent states; but, above all, leaving unresolved Russia’s integration within the Euro-Atlantic community. Russia will no doubt pay a high price for its apparent decision to “defend its own” and “put things right”, but others will have to pay their share, too.
This is perhaps the most dangerous point in Europe’s history since the end of the cold war. Direct confrontation between Russian and Ukrainian forces will draw in the United States, one way or another...
The Crimea crisis will not pass soon. Kiev is unlikely to agree to Crimea’s secession, even if backed by clear popular will: this would be discounted because of the “foreign occupation” of the peninsula. The crisis is also expanding to include other players, notably the United States. So far, there has been no military confrontation between Russian and Ukrainian forces, but if they clash, this will not be a repeat of the five-day war in the South Caucasus, as in 2008. The conflict will be longer and bloodier, with security in Europe put at its highest risk in a quarter century.
Even if there is no war, the Crimea crisis is likely to alter fundamentally relations between Russia and the west and lead to changes in the global power balance, with Russia now in open competition with the United States and the European Union in the new eastern Europe. If this happens, a second round of the cold war may ensue as a punishment for leaving many issues unsolved – such as Ukraine’s internal cohesion, the special position of Crimea, or the situation of Russian ethnics in the newly independent states; but, above all, leaving unresolved Russia’s integration within the Euro-Atlantic community. Russia will no doubt pay a high price for its apparent decision to “defend its own” and “put things right”, but others will have to pay their share, too.
Den ukrainska regeringen försöker hitta konstruktiva, fredliga lösningar på den situation Putinregimen tvingat på dem:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26405082
Citat:
Ukraine has called for the immediate despatch of an international fact-finding mission to Ukraine and Crimea, as well as assistance in protecting nuclear facilities. It is inviting the OSCE, the EU and others to hold meetings in Ukraine. It is also setting up a parliamentary negotiation group to reach out to Russian MPs.
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Senast redigerad av KaosnegerMedKlubba 2014-03-02 kl. 11:48.
Senast redigerad av KaosnegerMedKlubba 2014-03-02 kl. 11:48.
