Konflikten i Syrien

The dissolution of Syria and Iraq later on into ethnically or religiously unique areas such as in Lebanon, is Israel's primary target on the Eastern front in the long run, while the dissolution of the military power of those states serves as the primary short term target. Syria will fall apart, in accordance with its ethnic and religious structure, into several states such as in present day Lebanon, so that there will be a Shi'ite Alawi state along its coast, a Sunni state in the Aleppo area, another Sunni state in Damascus hostile to its northern neighbor, and the Druzes who will set up a state, maybe even in our Golan, and certainly in the Hauran and in northern Jordan. This state of affairs will be the guarantee for peace and security in the area in the long run, and that aim is already within our reach today.

Iraq, rich in oil on the one hand and internally torn on the other, is guaranteed as a candidate for Israel's targets. Its dissolution is even more important for us than that of Syria. Iraq is stronger than Syria. In the short run it is Iraqi power which constitutes the greatest threat to Israel. An Iraqi-Iranian war will tear Iraq apart and cause its downfall at home even before it is able to organize a struggle on a wide front against us. Every kind of inter-Arab confrontation will assist us in the short run and will shorten the way to the more important aim of breaking up Iraq into denominations as in Syria and in Lebanon. In Iraq, a division into provinces along ethnic/religious lines as in Syria during Ottoman times is possible. So, three (or more) states will exist around the three major cities: Basra, Baghdad and Mosul, and Shi'ite areas in the south will separate from the Sunni and Kurdish north. It is possible that the present Iranian-Iraqi confrontation will deepen this polarization.

Given the nature of the regime in Damascus, it is both natural and moral that Israel abandon the slogan "comprehensive peace" and move to contain Syria, drawing attention to its weapons of mass destruction program, and rejecting "land for peace" deals on the Golan Heights.

Israel can shape its strategic environment, in cooperation with Turkey and Jordan, by weakening, containing, and even rolling back Syria. This effort can focus on removing Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq — an important Israeli strategic objective in its own right — as a means of foiling Syria’s regional ambitions.

Most important, it is understandable that Israel has an interest supporting diplomatically, militarily and operationally Turkey’s and Jordan’s actions against Syria, such as securing tribal alliances with Arab tribes that cross into Syrian territory and are hostile to the Syrian ruling elite.

A Clean Break: A New Strategy for Securing the Realm (commonly known as the "Clean Break" report) is a policy document that was prepared in 1996 by a study group led by Richard Perle for Benjamin Netanyahu, the then Prime Minister of Israel.[1] The report explained a new approach to solving Israel's security problems in the Middle East with an emphasis on "Western values". It has since been criticized for advocating an aggressive new policy including the removal of Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq, and the containment of Syria by engaging in proxy warfare and highlighting their possession of "weapons of mass destruction".

Administration officials said the influential American Israel Public Affairs Committee was already at work pressing for military action against the government of Assad, fearing that if Syria escapes American retribution for its use of chemical weapons, Iran might be emboldened in the future to attack Israel. In the House, the majority leader, Eric Cantor of Virginia, the only Jewish Republican in Congress, has long worked to challenge Democrats’ traditional base among Jews.

One administration official, who, like others, declined to be identified discussing White House strategy, called AIPAC “the 800-pound gorilla in the room,” and said its allies in Congress had to be saying, “If the White House is not capable of enforcing this red line” against the catastrophic use of chemical weapons, “we’re in trouble.”

“For Jerusalem, the status quo, horrific as it may be from a humanitarian perspective, seems preferable to either a victory by Mr. Assad’s government and his Iranian backers or a strengthening of rebel groups, increasingly dominated by Sunni jihadis.

“‘This is a playoff situation in which you need both teams to lose, but at least you don’t want one to win – we’ll settle for a tie,’ said Alon Pinkas, a former Israeli consul general in New York. ‘Let them both bleed, hemorrhage to death: that’s the strategic thinking here. As long as this lingers, there’s no real threat from Syria.’”

SPLITTRAT LAND Dagens Syrien har fallit sönder i flera maktsfärer. Landet kommer att få svårt att resa sig ur askan som sammanhållen stat

Efter mer än två års förödande inbördeskrig med över 100000 döda och två miljoner flyktingar i grannländerna är Syrien sönderslitet mellan olika intressesfärer.

Oavsett om det kommer att falla amerikanska Tomahawk-missiler över Assadregimens militäranläggningar eller inte är den syriska arabrepubliken så fragmentiserad att det är svårt att se hur Syrien ska kunna återuppstå som sammanhållen centralstyrd stat.

–Syrien finns inte längre, sade den turkiske kolumnisten Çengiz Çandar under en paneldiskussion i Tensta häromdagen.

Det går inte att säga emot. Sönderdelningen i Syrien kan förenklat beskrivas som tre olika maktsfärer:

*OBAMA SAYS WORLD SHOULDN'T `FIND REASON NOT TO ACT' ON SYRIA
*OBAMA SAYS WORLD NEEDS TO MAKE `TOUGH CHOICES' ON THREATS
*OBAMA SAYS FAILURE TO RESPOND SENDS SIGNAL TO `ROGUE NATIONS'
*OBAMA SAYS USE OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS THREAT TO GLOBAL PEACE
*OBAMA SAYS HE'S `NOT ITCHING' FOR MILITARY ACTION IN SYRIA
*OBAMA BELIEVES ACTION MUST BE TAKEN ON SYRIA, CARNEY SAYS
*KERRY SAYS OBAMA'S FIRST PRIORITY IS DIPLOMACY ON SYRIA
*OBAMA WANTS SYRIA THREAT OF FORCE ON THE TABLE, KERRY SAYS
*KERRY SAYS THREAT MORE EFFECTIVE IF CONGRESS STANDS WITH OBAMA
*KERRY SAYS CAN'T AFFORD `EVERYDAY USE' OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS
*KERRY SAYS OBAMA SEEKING CONGRESS VOTE WAS `GUT' DECISION
*KERRY SAYS SYRIA CONFLICT REQUIRES POLITICAL SOLUTION
*SYRIA HAS `VERY THREATENING' STOCK OF CHEMICAL ARMS, KERRY SAYS
*KERRY SAYS PROPOSAL MUST BE REAL, VERIFIABLE, NOT DELAY TACTIC
*KERRY SAYS `WHAT ASSAD HAS DONE DIRECTLY EFFECTS' U.S. SECURITY
*NOTHING HAS CHANGED ON AUTHORIZATION REQUEST, KERRY SAYS
OBAMA ADMINISTRATION STILL SEEKING CONGRESSIONAL AUTHORIZATION FOR USE OF FORCE IN SYRIA DESPITE CHANCE OF DIPLOMATIC DEAL -KERRY
OBAMA SAID TO AGREE TO UN DISCUSSION ON RUSSIA SYRIA PLAN: AP
OBAMA MAY WANT TO TALK TO CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP ABOUT 'WHEN AND HOW' CONGRESS ACTS - KERRY SAYS
PROPOSED U.S. MILITARY ACTION AGAINST SYRIA NOT DESIGNED TO TOPPLE
ASSAD, BUT WOULD DEGRADE HIS MILITARY AND FORCE HIM TO NEGOTIATE -KERRY

OBAMA SAYS AL ASSAD'S THREATS NOT CREDIBLE