Citat:
Apple säljer redan pennor med Anotos teknik via Livescribe men som det ryktas att deKommer Apple använda Anotos produkter? Det var en överraskning. Jag har vart inne och följt Anoto forum på Avanza och det kändes som haussade aktien. HP är brekräftad med den dokument som visades i någon tidigare sida.
Jag har läst att Apple har släppt någon nyhet på deras store om tillgänglighet att skaffa en penna.
Jag har läst att Apple har släppt någon nyhet på deras store om tillgänglighet att skaffa en penna.
kommer att satsa mer på teknik runt pennor så kommer bara det lyfta hela marknaden
med pennor och där är Anoto med bästa tekniken bra med isf.
Men det kommer andra nyheter också med interaktiva skärmar och annat gott så detta
blir nog bra om man ger det lite tid bara. Kommer nog snabba vinster med rekyler på vinsthemtagningar men långsiktigt tror jag på detta.
Prognoser får vi vänta på till vi får siffror så kurser är inget att tänka på än. Redeyes
bullcase på 1,89 känns dock lågt just nu..
Menar du att deras riktkurs i år är 1,89kr?
Citat:
Apple säljer redan pennor med Anotos teknik via Livescribe men som det ryktas att de
kommer att satsa mer på teknik runt pennor så kommer bara det lyfta hela marknaden
med pennor och där är Anoto med bästa tekniken bra med isf.
Men det kommer andra nyheter också med interaktiva skärmar och annat gott så detta
blir nog bra om man ger det lite tid bara. Kommer nog snabba vinster med rekyler på vinsthemtagningar men långsiktigt tror jag på detta.
Prognoser får vi vänta på till vi får siffror så kurser är inget att tänka på än. Redeyes
bullcase på 1,89 känns dock lågt just nu..
kommer att satsa mer på teknik runt pennor så kommer bara det lyfta hela marknaden
med pennor och där är Anoto med bästa tekniken bra med isf.
Men det kommer andra nyheter också med interaktiva skärmar och annat gott så detta
blir nog bra om man ger det lite tid bara. Kommer nog snabba vinster med rekyler på vinsthemtagningar men långsiktigt tror jag på detta.
Prognoser får vi vänta på till vi får siffror så kurser är inget att tänka på än. Redeyes
bullcase på 1,89 känns dock lågt just nu..
Citat:
A pessimistic scenario (bear case)
Our bear case assumptions are:
1. In a pessimistic, but reasonable scenario, Anoto would suffer from
additional working capital needs and increased operating expenses, as the
large sales from the OEM deal gets postponed for a few quarters, shows the
same disappointing sales results as Panasonic or even capsizes for some
reason. We assess that Anoto still can get a deal with another major OEM
but the Company would then need to start all over again with new
negotiations etcetera. In the meantime Anoto would then not be able to find
Anoto Group AB
Company analysis
12
further financing, and burns all capital within 2015. Anoto will not slash
OPEX, meaning that the downward spiral could then continue for some
years. Anoto has been phenomenal at raising capital throughout the years
in the past but that was mostly during bull market conditions and not for
instance during the latest financial crisis of 2008-2009. A need for capital
during a future recession or market turmoil might be too much to handle.
2. There is still some value in Anoto from tax loss carryforwards of more
than SEK 500 million, the technological expertise from focusing on a nisch
area for almost 20 years and more than 100 valid patents. Thus, Anoto’s
products or technology could be of value in someone else’s hands. Owners,
partners and competitors, such as TStudy, Smartmatic, SOLiD, Panasonic,
the new OEM customer and Wacom, all have various reasons for acquiring
Anoto. This event would be similar to how Microsoft bought N-trigs
technology, and not the whole company, for a price similar to a break-up
value.
The sale of Anoto (or parts of the Company) could be worth about SEK 180
million in total. Thus, our value of Anoto in bear case amounts to
0.2 SEK per share. Our expected probability for bear case is 25 percent.
An optimistic scenario (bull case)
Assumptions in bull case:
1. In bull case we believe that everything goes faster and better than
expected, first and foremost in the HP project. We also believe that we
could have underestimated the Optika Display partnership in its billion
dollar market. Anoto in bull case captures 2,5 percent of Touch Display
Research’s estimated 2017 market for active pens of USD 3 billion, or USD
75 million in sales. Together with the Business Solutions revenue of SEK
137 million the aforementioned sales translates to total sales of close to SEK
600 million 2017. In bull case we are, outside of the strong growth in
interactive displays, also counting on most of the customers within
Education, Smartmatic, Panasonic and we-inspire to be important sales
growth drivers. The CAGR sales growth between 2015 and 2018 will be 31
percent.
2. Anoto’s gross margins of 65-70 percent suggests that the Company could
likely reach sustainable EBIT margins in bull case of at least 25 percent
within about 4 years, if we assume scalability in OPEX.
3. With our assumptions above the fair value would then in bull case
be SEK 1698 million, or a value per share of SEK 1.89. Our expected
probability for bull case is 25 percent.
Our bear case assumptions are:
1. In a pessimistic, but reasonable scenario, Anoto would suffer from
additional working capital needs and increased operating expenses, as the
large sales from the OEM deal gets postponed for a few quarters, shows the
same disappointing sales results as Panasonic or even capsizes for some
reason. We assess that Anoto still can get a deal with another major OEM
but the Company would then need to start all over again with new
negotiations etcetera. In the meantime Anoto would then not be able to find
Anoto Group AB
Company analysis
12
further financing, and burns all capital within 2015. Anoto will not slash
OPEX, meaning that the downward spiral could then continue for some
years. Anoto has been phenomenal at raising capital throughout the years
in the past but that was mostly during bull market conditions and not for
instance during the latest financial crisis of 2008-2009. A need for capital
during a future recession or market turmoil might be too much to handle.
2. There is still some value in Anoto from tax loss carryforwards of more
than SEK 500 million, the technological expertise from focusing on a nisch
area for almost 20 years and more than 100 valid patents. Thus, Anoto’s
products or technology could be of value in someone else’s hands. Owners,
partners and competitors, such as TStudy, Smartmatic, SOLiD, Panasonic,
the new OEM customer and Wacom, all have various reasons for acquiring
Anoto. This event would be similar to how Microsoft bought N-trigs
technology, and not the whole company, for a price similar to a break-up
value.
The sale of Anoto (or parts of the Company) could be worth about SEK 180
million in total. Thus, our value of Anoto in bear case amounts to
0.2 SEK per share. Our expected probability for bear case is 25 percent.
An optimistic scenario (bull case)
Assumptions in bull case:
1. In bull case we believe that everything goes faster and better than
expected, first and foremost in the HP project. We also believe that we
could have underestimated the Optika Display partnership in its billion
dollar market. Anoto in bull case captures 2,5 percent of Touch Display
Research’s estimated 2017 market for active pens of USD 3 billion, or USD
75 million in sales. Together with the Business Solutions revenue of SEK
137 million the aforementioned sales translates to total sales of close to SEK
600 million 2017. In bull case we are, outside of the strong growth in
interactive displays, also counting on most of the customers within
Education, Smartmatic, Panasonic and we-inspire to be important sales
growth drivers. The CAGR sales growth between 2015 and 2018 will be 31
percent.
2. Anoto’s gross margins of 65-70 percent suggests that the Company could
likely reach sustainable EBIT margins in bull case of at least 25 percent
within about 4 years, if we assume scalability in OPEX.
3. With our assumptions above the fair value would then in bull case
be SEK 1698 million, or a value per share of SEK 1.89. Our expected
probability for bull case is 25 percent.
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