En intressant analys av FABs på slagfältet (och samma diskuterades i tråden igår, min höftning var >0,2 döda per glidbomb, = >20000 döda på ett år), var och en kan brygga vidare på den:
AMK mapping:
"The Ukrainian General Staff reports that Russia launched a record 8,300+ glide-bombs during July - an average of 268 per day.
If kept up at a monthly rate, Russia would be launching 100,000 glide-bombs per year.
Let's say, hypothetically, that each of these glide-bombs kills one Ukrainian soldier and injures 2 others on average, which would be the bare minimum for such large munitions. That would be an average of 804 casualties per day, or 293,000 per year - just from glide-bombs. You can see that the casualties add up very quickly."
https://x.com/clement_molin/status/2084979432016470256?s=20
[commenting on AMK mapping]: These [AMKs] numbers are completly made up and far from the reality
I mapped around 40 to 50% of monthly reported airstrikes since march 2026. So, I have clear estimations relying on real data.
Nowadays, around 1 KAB out of two is falling in an open terrain (a field), depending on the direction. On some directions, the "precision" is 10% (meaning all other KABs missed their potential target), while on some directions, we reach 80 to 90% precision. [PS: this is very unclear, ASFAIK FABs cannot be jammed? How is the variance so high?]
From these, I believe 10 to 20% of the KABs (which are hitting something) are really falling on a real target. I've seen example of 50 KABs on a single treeline or 200 on a single forest. There is no way there are 50 positions in a treeline, there are maximum 3, and most are not occupied. [this is an interesting part of the calculation] When falling on cities, KABs can destroy buildings, but soldiers are most of the time in the basements, so unless the buildings collapse (not often on soviet buildings), they remain unharmed.
With the 50% precision (falling on a treeline, a forest, a city, a village...), 10% of those may in fact hit a position. This means we can estimate around 5% of all KABs are really hitting something, which does not mean there are soldiers inside and which does not mean the soldiers are harmed. Thus, we can estimate that up to 450 KABs are indeed falling on real positions every month (based on July), while at least 1 000 more fall nearby (cities, field, other part of the treeline and can also kill or wound soldiers.
We already know drones are doing the highest number of casualties, making up some numbers with KABs is not reliable.
Don't mistaken me, I'm not saying there are no casualties from KABs, this is one of the most important problem right now for Ukraine.
We can estimate up to 2 000 casualties every month [24000 dead from nowon] because of those, including dead and wounded. Also, there is a big difference between KAB 250 and KAB 1 500, as well as between a strike 5km to the frontline and one 20km."
Edit: Grok la till i kommentarerna:
"For US JDAM-style PGMs in Iraq/Syria/Afghanistan/Kosovo, combatant kills average several [>1] per successful hit on occupied targets but often 0-1; " (combattants).