Regeringen: Sverige kan attackeras först vid ett Nato-Ryssland-krig (2025-01-04)

Ukraine and Georgia's NATO aspirations not only touch a raw nerve in Russia, they engender serious concerns about the consequences for stability in the region. Not only does Russia perceive encirclement, and efforts to undermine Russia's influence in the region, but it also fears unpredictable and uncontrolled consequences which would seriously affect Russian security interests. Experts tell us that Russia is particularly worried that the strong divisions in Ukraine over NATO membership, with much of the ethnic-Russian community against membership, could lead to a major split, involving violence or at worst, civil war. In that eventuality, Russia would have to decide whether to intervene; a decision Russia does not want to have to face.

Naturally, in order for Ukraine to remain a friendly neighbor for Russia, Russia would have had to demonstrate the attractiveness of its state model and system of government. But Russia never became a friendly neighbor; its model of development and foreign policy mechanism for international cooperation repelled almost all its neighbors and beyond. Russia’s appropriation of the Crimea and Sevastopol, and their nonrecognition as Russian by the international community (meaning that the majority of countries in the world still believe they belong to Ukraine) are convincing proof of the failure of Russian foreign policy and the unattractiveness of its domestic policy. Attempts to use ultimatums and the threat of force to make [others] “fall in love with” Russia and its leaders are pointless and extremely dangerous.

The use of military force against Ukraine will, first of all, call into question Russia’s very existence as a state. Second, it will turn Russians and Ukrainians into mortal enemies. Third, thousands (tens of thousands) of young, healthy people will die on both sides, which will naturally have an effect on the future demographic situation in our dying countries. On the battlefield field – if there is a battle – Russian troops will face not just Ukrainian soldiers, many of whom will be [ethnically] Russian, but also NATO troops and equipment, while NATO member states will be obligated to declare war against Russia. Turkish President Recep [Tayyip] Erdogan has been clear about whose side Turkey will be on. And we can assume that Turkey’s two field armies and its fleet will be ordered to “liberate” the Crimea and Sevastopol and, possibly, to invade the Caucasus. In addition, there is no doubt that Russia will be added to the category of countries that pose a threat to peace and international security, subjected to the most severe sanctions, transformed into a pariah in the eyes of the international community and probably lose the status of an independent state. There is no way that the president, the government and the Defense Ministry do not understand these consequences.

”Rubriken och artikeln verkar vara en tolkning av rapportens innehåll, men tonen och språket är betydligt mer dramatisk än den sakliga framställningen i originaltexten.

Här är några viktiga punkter för att avgöra om innehållet är vinklat:

1. Rapportens fokus:

Rapporten nämner inte att Sverige direkt skulle “angripas först” i ett tredje världskrig. Den framhäver istället Sveriges roll i Nato och behovet av att vara beredd på olika hot, inklusive väpnade angrepp, men utan att placera Sverige som första mål.

2. Språket:

Användningen av ord som “likviderad” och “bombas sönder” är inte en del av rapportens språkbruk. Rapporten är mer formell och nyanserad, utan spekulativa eller alarmistiska uttryck.

3. Scenariot:

Medan rapporten tar upp potentiella säkerhetshot från Ryssland och behovet av försvarsförmåga i en större konflikt, inkluderar den inga scenarier om specifika attacker mot Sverige som första mål i ett världskrig.

Slutsatsen är att rubriken och artikeln är vinklade och överdrivna jämfört med den ursprungliga rapportens sakliga innehåll.”